29 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Heart of Midlothian vs St Johnstone Premiership prediction & result

Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Heart of Midlothian 2-1 St Johnstone.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Heart of Midlothian, 27% draw, 36% St Johnstone — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Heart of Midlothian at 37% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽J. Wilsonassist: J. McPake
9'
⚽E. Alic (OG)
39'
48'
⚽R. Patonassist: S. Stanton
🔁J. Wilsonout: P. Kabore
57'
🔁L. Mendyout: B. Spittal
57'
72'
🔁S. Stantonout: M. Tait
73'
🔁J. Gullanout: T. Steven
73'
🔁R. Patonout: K. Fotheringham
🔁S. Kerjotaout: C. Miller
81'
90+2'
🔁L. Smithout: L. Chalmers

Match stats — Heart of Midlothian vs St Johnstone

47%Possession53%
16Shots9
7On target4
8Corners4
1.71xG1.16

Goals against chances

Heart of Midlothian2 from 1.71 xGabout what the chances were worth
St Johnstone1 from 1.16 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Heart of Midlothian 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. ReusG
  • 23J. AltenaD
  • 6O. McEnteeD
  • 17S. FindlayD
  • 2C. BorchgrevinkD
  • 22T. MagnussonM
  • 78L. MendyM
  • 29S. KerjotaM
  • 10C. BragaM
  • 15J. McPakeM
  • 21J. WilsonF
Substitutes
  • 30R. FultonG
  • 24M. KamaraD
  • 7C. MillerF
  • 9J. Williams
  • 11P. KaboreF
  • 77A. Ba-SyF
  • 16B. SpittalM
  • 19S. GuendouzF
  • 74R. MatoF
Coach: Wouter Vrancken
St Johnstone 4-4-2
  • 1T. StewardG
  • 33L. SmithD
  • 5Z. MitchellD
  • 3C. DiabateD
  • 2E. AlicD
  • 11S. StantonM
  • 42R. McAlearM
  • 8J. HoltM
  • 10J. GullanM
  • 9J. FowlerF
  • 99R. PatonF
Substitutes
  • 20R. SinclairG
  • 14M. FouldsD
  • 4M. BoyesD
  • 6B. MikulicD
  • 25M. TaitM
  • 26M. ToddM
  • 23L. ChalmersM
  • 7T. StevenF
  • 18K. FotheringhamF
Coach: Simo Valakari

Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs St Johnstone

Heart of Midlothian

  • W4-0Dundee United9 August 2026

St Johnstone

  • L0-1away to St Mirren8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Heart of Midlothian6402137+612
7St Johnstone621389-17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs St Johnstone

  • 29 August 2026Heart of Midlothian 2–1 St JohnstonePremiership
  • 14 May 2025Heart of Midlothian 2–1 St JohnstonePremiership
  • 23 February 2025St Johnstone 1–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
  • 22 December 2024Heart of Midlothian 2–1 St JohnstonePremiership
  • 2 November 2024St Johnstone 1–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
  • 7 February 2024St Johnstone 0–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership

Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and St Johnstone

Heart of Midlothian

  • J. Wilson3 goals
  • J. McPake2 goals4 assists
  • Cláudio Braga2 goals2 assists

St Johnstone

  • J. Fowler4 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.