30 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Dundee vs Hibernian Premiership prediction & result

Dens Park, Dundee
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Dundee 1-2 Hibernian.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Dundee, 28% draw, 29% Hibernian — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dundee at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dundee0%Draw5%Hibernian95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
⚽M. Boyleassist: G. Hanley
58'
Felix Passlack
🔁C. Reillyout: A. Forrest
61'
61'
⚽C. Wrightassist: F. Passlack
🔁B. Finkout: F. Robertson
62'
Drey Wright
67'
🔁R. Finniganout: Z. Besir
75'
🔁J. Bevanout: B. Wales
75'
78'
🔁N. Loweout: T. Klidje
78'
🔁M. Boyleout: A. Suto
81'
🔁J. Devaneyout: J. Newell
81'
🔁C. Wrightout: M. Chaiwa
⚽J. Westley
83'

Match stats — Dundee vs Hibernian

39%Possession61%
11Shots25
3On target7
3Corners5
0.78xG2.42

Goals against chances

Dundee1 from 0.78 xGabout what the chances were worth
Hibernian2 from 2.42 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dundee 4-2-3-1
  • 1O. GoodmanG
  • 7D. WrightD
  • 4R. AstleyD
  • 5O. Bevan
  • 3I. OdutayoD
  • 8R. FinniganM
  • 48E. HamiltonM
  • 27J. BevanM
  • 21B. FinkM
  • 18C. ReillyM
  • 19J. WestleyF
Substitutes
  • 13K. O'HaraG
  • 6M. AkinmboniD
  • 2B. HallidayD
  • 17Z. BesirM
  • 28C. JonesM
  • 14A. ForrestF
  • 10F. Robertson
  • 58E. CrombieM
  • 9B. WalesF
Coach: Steven Pressley
Hibernian 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. SallingerG
  • 25F. PasslackD
  • 6J. KerrD
  • 4G. HanleyD
  • 21J. ObitaD
  • 23C. WrightM
  • 24J. DevaneyM
  • 10M. BoyleM
  • 8J. MulliganM
  • 17J. McGrathM
  • 9N. LoweF
Substitutes
  • 13J. SmithG
  • 15J. IredaleD
  • 27K. MegwaD
  • 11J. NewellM
  • 47A. AbdulaiM
  • 14M. ChaiwaM
  • 20R. Molotnikov
  • 18T. KlidjeF
  • 22A. SutoF
Coach: David Gray

Form going into Dundee vs Hibernian

Dundee

  • W2-0away to Dundee United22 August 2026
  • W2-0Aberdeen8 August 2026

Hibernian

  • W2-1away to Rangers9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Dundee621376+17
9Hibernian6204710-36

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dundee vs Hibernian

  • 30 August 2026Dundee 1–2 HibernianPremiership
  • 28 February 2026Dundee 3–3 HibernianPremiership
  • 22 November 2025Hibernian 2–0 DundeePremiership
  • 3 August 2025Dundee 1–2 HibernianPremiership
  • 13 April 2025Hibernian 4–0 DundeePremiership
  • 23 November 2024Dundee 4–1 HibernianPremiership

Leading scorers: Dundee and Hibernian

Dundee

  • J. Westley2 goals

Hibernian

  • C. Wright2 goals
  • M. Boyle2 goals
  • N. Lowe1 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.