Kilmarnock vs Dundee United Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Kilmarnock 0-4 Dundee United.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Kilmarnock, 23% draw, 21% Dundee United — fair odds of 1.79, 4.35 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Kilmarnock at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kilmarnock vs Dundee United
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. StryjekG
- 19J. MeierD
- 4C. McCarthyD
- 6R. DeasD
- 21M. Schjonning-LarsenD
- 20N. ClescencoM
- 5M. O'Hara
- 18T. LoweryM
- 11G. KiltieM
- 9J. HugillF
- 10T. John-JulesF
- 12C. FerrieG
- 14G. StangerD
- 2J. BrandonD
- 39E. BowieD
- 37C. Burke
- 15J. YfekoD
- 49B. RiceM
- 7R. McKenzieM
- 29D. DanielsF
- 1J. WaltonG
- 23J. RawlinsD
- 3B. EsselinkD
- 18M. ForbesD
- 11W. FerryD
- 26A. YoroM
- 12E. AgyeiM
- 8P. CamaraM
- 7M. MerghemF
- 9Z. SapsfordF
- 77D. BennieF
- 30J. AmissahG
- 6R. GrahamD
- 4I. IovuD
- 22D. NaamoD
- 19K. CiubotaruD
- 20N. FarrugiaF
- 21J. RandallF
- 15L. RoseF
- 93I. MetsokoF
Form going into Kilmarnock vs Dundee United
Kilmarnock
All competitions we cover
- L1-5Celtic9 August 2026
- L3-4away to St Johnstone2 August 2026
Dundee United
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Dundee22 August 2026
- L0-4away to Heart of Midlothian9 August 2026
- D1-1Rangers31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 9 |
| 6 | Dundee United | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kilmarnock vs Dundee United
- 2 May 2026Kilmarnock 3–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 21 February 2026Dundee United 1–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 29 November 2025Kilmarnock 1–1 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 27 September 2025Dundee United 0–2 KilmarnockPremiership
- 17 August 2025Kilmarnock 2–1 Dundee UnitedLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Kilmarnock and Dundee United
Kilmarnock
GoalsAssists
- G. Kiltie30
Dundee United
GoalsAssists
- J. Randall33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Dundee United won 4–0 at Kilmarnock. The model had leaned towards a win for Kilmarnock at 56% and given a win for Dundee United 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: E. Agyei 12' for Dundee United, Z. Sapsford (penalty) 36' for Dundee United, W. Ferry 41' for Dundee United, J. Randall 77' for Dundee United. On expected goals it finished 1.03–3.50.