29 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Kilmarnock vs Dundee United Premiership prediction & result

Rugby Park, Kilmarnock
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Kilmarnock 0-4 Dundee United.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Kilmarnock, 23% draw, 21% Dundee United — fair odds of 1.79, 4.35 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Kilmarnock at 56% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kilmarnock0%Draw1%Dundee United99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
Bert Esselink
12'
⚽E. Agyeiassist: M. Merghem
🔁R. Deasout: G. Stanger
18'
Cathal McCarthy
35'
36'
⚽Z. Sapsford (pen)
38'
Zachary Sapsford
41'
⚽W. Ferryassist: M. Merghem
Joe Hugill
43'
🔁J. Meierout: J. Brandon
46'
🔁N. Clescencoout: D. Daniels
46'
🔁T. John-Julesout: C. Burke
63'
🔁M. O'Haraout: B. Rice
63'
63'
🔁M. Merghemout: J. Randall
63'
🔁A. Yoroout: L. Rose
69'
William Ferry
74'
🔁Z. Sapsfordout: N. Farrugia
77'
⚽J. Randallassist: W. Ferry
79'
🔁D. Bennieout: D. Naamo
Bailey Rice
90+2'

Match stats — Kilmarnock vs Dundee United

51%Possession49%
16Shots21
4On target8
3Corners5
1.03xG3.5

Goals against chances

Kilmarnock0 from 1.03 xGless than the chances were worth
Dundee United4 from 3.50 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kilmarnock 4-4-2
  • 1M. StryjekG
  • 19J. MeierD
  • 4C. McCarthyD
  • 6R. DeasD
  • 21M. Schjonning-LarsenD
  • 20N. ClescencoM
  • 5M. O'Hara
  • 18T. LoweryM
  • 11G. KiltieM
  • 9J. HugillF
  • 10T. John-JulesF
Substitutes
  • 12C. FerrieG
  • 14G. StangerD
  • 2J. BrandonD
  • 39E. BowieD
  • 37C. Burke
  • 15J. YfekoD
  • 49B. RiceM
  • 7R. McKenzieM
  • 29D. DanielsF
Coach: Neil McCann
Dundee United 4-3-3
  • 1J. WaltonG
  • 23J. RawlinsD
  • 3B. EsselinkD
  • 18M. ForbesD
  • 11W. FerryD
  • 26A. YoroM
  • 12E. AgyeiM
  • 8P. CamaraM
  • 7M. MerghemF
  • 9Z. SapsfordF
  • 77D. BennieF
Substitutes
  • 30J. AmissahG
  • 6R. GrahamD
  • 4I. IovuD
  • 22D. NaamoD
  • 19K. CiubotaruD
  • 20N. FarrugiaF
  • 21J. RandallF
  • 15L. RoseF
  • 93I. MetsokoF
Coach: Jim Goodwin

Form going into Kilmarnock vs Dundee United

Kilmarnock

  • L1-5Celtic9 August 2026

Dundee United

  • L0-2Dundee22 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Heart of Midlothian9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Kilmarnock6114514-94
11Dundee United6123611-55

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kilmarnock vs Dundee United

  • 29 August 2026Kilmarnock 0–4 Dundee UnitedPremiership
  • 2 May 2026Kilmarnock 3–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
  • 21 February 2026Dundee United 1–1 KilmarnockPremiership
  • 29 November 2025Kilmarnock 1–1 Dundee UnitedPremiership
  • 27 September 2025Dundee United 0–2 KilmarnockPremiership
  • 17 August 2025Kilmarnock 2–1 Dundee UnitedLeague Cup

Leading scorers: Kilmarnock and Dundee United

Kilmarnock

No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Dundee United

  • J. Randall1 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.