Cercle Brugge vs Lommel United Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Cercle Brugge 0-1 Lommel United.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Cercle Brugge, 25% draw, 22% Lommel United — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cercle Brugge at 53% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cercle Brugge vs Lommel United
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1G. CouckeG
- 2I. DiakiteD
- 5E. KakouD
- 24G. KondoD
- 15G. MagneeM
- 42L. MondeleM
- 19I. DiabyM
- 12V. KonateM
- 13D. VanzeirF
- 9S. NgouraF
- 71V. MartensF
- 84B. LangenbickG
- 33R. CaicedoD
- 10L. AmaniM
- 8Erick NunesM
- 6L. AgyekumM
- 41K. KouassiF
- 22L. MichalF
- 73L. Rocha Torres
- 88S. BehaegheD
- 23M. PieklakG
- 2J. van DuivenD
- 3T. EyomaD
- 5D. WoutersD
- 4S. AdewoyeD
- 6J. PelupessyM
- 7J. TalvitieM
- 15L. SchoofsM
- 10T. ReynersM
- 21S. AppuahM
- 9D. KonaduF
- 1N. IvezicG
- 47T. GooijerD
- 22D. GordicM
- 44I. Dada-MascollM
- 46N. CorthoutsF
- 17E. VandecraenD
- 60L. BeirinckxD
- 73A. Reumers
- 98M. SalahF
Form going into Cercle Brugge vs Lommel United
Cercle Brugge
- L0-1away to Club Brugge KV23 August 2026
- D3-3St. Truiden14 August 2026
Lommel United
- W4-0KVC Westerlo23 August 2026
- L0-1Charleroi16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cercle Brugge | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
| 12 | Lommel United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cercle Brugge vs Lommel United
- 29 August 2026Cercle Brugge 0–1 Lommel UnitedJupiler Pro League
- 11 July 2026Cercle Brugge 1–1 Lommel UnitedFriendlies Clubs
- 21 April 2017Lommel United 0–1 Cercle BruggeChallenger Pro League
- 26 March 2017Cercle Brugge 0–5 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
- 3 February 2017Lommel United 0–1 Cercle BruggeChallenger Pro League
- 20 November 2016Cercle Brugge 1–0 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
Leading scorers: Cercle Brugge and Lommel United
Cercle Brugge
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Lommel United
- T. Reyners3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.