29 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

OH Leuven vs Standard Liege Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Den Dreef, Heverlee
Full time1 – 2

Final score: OH Leuven 1-2 Standard Liege.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% OH Leuven, 24% draw, 25% Standard Liege — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts OH Leuven at 51% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

OH Leuven0%Draw5%Standard Liege95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽C. Nielsen (pen)
Roggerio Nyakossi
51'
🔁A. K. Traoreout: D. Opoku
58'
61'
🔁R. Touzgharout: R. Fosso
61'
🔁S. Drammehout: D. Eckert
⚽W. Georgeassist: C. Ikwuemesi
66'
68'
⚽D. Eckertassist: A. Abid
73'
🔁B. Ngueneout: D. Dierckx
73'
🔁M. Fosseyout: H. Lawrence
76'
Casper Nielsen
82'
🔁A. Trouilletout: T. Mohr
🔁B. Verstraeteout: L. Lakomy
86'
🔁R. Nyakossiout: K. Vaesen
86'
🔁W. Balikwishaout: S. Yamada
86'
Siebe Schrijvers
90+1'
90+2'
Matthieu Epolo

Match stats — OH Leuven vs Standard Liege

63%Possession37%
22Shots5
3On target3
6Corners3
1.89xG1.36

Goals against chances

OH Leuven1 from 1.89 xGless than the chances were worth
Standard Liege2 from 1.36 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

OH Leuven 3-4-1-2
  • 16D. van den HeuvelG
  • 28E. PletinckxD
  • 3N. DussenneD
  • 34R. NyakossiD
  • 27O. GilM
  • 4B. VerstraeteM
  • 8S. SchrijversM
  • 9A. K. TraoreM
  • 6W. George
  • 21W. BalikwishaF
  • 19C. IkwuemesiF
Substitutes
  • 1T. LeysenG
  • 5J. LawrenceD
  • 99D. OpokuD
  • 48B. KayoM
  • 80M. HeremansM
  • 24L. LakomyM
  • 72S. MurruM
  • 17K. VaesenF
  • 20S. YamadaF
Coach: Timmy Simons
Standard Liege 4-3-3
  • 1M. EpoloG
  • 13M. FosseyD
  • 20I. KaramokoD
  • 25I. HautekietD
  • 3G. MortensenD
  • 94C. NielsenM
  • 22A. TrouilletM
  • 84R. TouzgharM
  • 15S. DrammehF
  • 17B. NgueneF
  • 11A. AbidF
Substitutes
  • 21L. PirardG
  • 29D. DierckxD
  • 18H. LawrenceD
  • 80R. FossoM
  • 7T. MohrM
  • 6L. GoemaereM
  • 10D. EckertF
  • 19S. JasperM
  • 77B. NsimbaF
Coach: Vincent Euvrard

Form going into OH Leuven vs Standard Liege

OH Leuven

  • L0-3Club Brugge KV15 August 2026

Standard Liege

  • W2-0RAAL La Louvière21 August 2026
  • D3-3away to KV Mechelen16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17OH Leuven6015313-101
6Standard Liege63211210+211

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: OH Leuven vs Standard Liege

  • 29 August 2026OH Leuven 1–2 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
  • 8 May 2026Standard Liege 2–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
  • 4 April 2026OH Leuven 1–3 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
  • 12 December 2025Standard Liege 0–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
  • 31 August 2025OH Leuven 1–0 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
  • 26 April 2025OH Leuven 1–1 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: OH Leuven and Standard Liege

OH Leuven

No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Standard Liege

  • D. Eckert Ayensa4 goals
  • A. Abid3 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.