29 August 2026, 16:15 UTC

Kortrijk vs Charleroi Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Guldensporen Stadion, Kortrijk
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Kortrijk 1-3 Charleroi.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Kortrijk, 28% draw, 36% Charleroi — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Kortrijk at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kortrijk0%Draw4%Charleroi96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

34'
⚽A. Scheidlerassist: K. Van Den Kerkhof
38'
Antoine Bernier
⚽S. Campbellassist: T. Ambrose
41'
53'
🔁A. Bernierout: F. Mbemba
🔁K. Masuiout: J. van Landschoot
59'
63'
🔁A. Boukamirout: I. Cisse
63'
🔁P. Pfluckeout: A. Colassin
Rudy Kohon
65'
66'
⚽C. Keitaassist: J. Romsaas
🔁B. Lambertout: A. Phillips
72'
🔁G. Koyalipouout: B. Adinany
72'
🔁N. Mehssatou Sepulvedaout: H. Murray-Campbell
82'
🔁S. Campbellout: S. Podgoreanu
82'
86'
🔁Y. Khalifiout: N. Solheid
86'
🔁A. Scheidlerout: A. Bojang
90'
⚽A. Colassinassist: A. Bojang

Match stats — Kortrijk vs Charleroi

51%Possession49%
13Shots18
5On target5
6Corners5
1.2xG1.69

Goals against chances

Kortrijk1 from 1.20 xGabout what the chances were worth
Charleroi3 from 1.69 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kortrijk 3-4-2-1
  • 31M. IlicG
  • 36R. KohonD
  • 22G. RuyssenD
  • 5J. NdjeungoueD
  • 11S. CampbellM
  • 19B. DejaegereM
  • 35B. LambertM
  • 8N. Mehssatou SepulvedaM
  • 71K. MasuiF
  • 68T. AmbroseF
  • 10G. KoyalipouF
Substitutes
  • 13E. De VlaeminckG
  • 4H. Murray-CampbellD
  • 15M. Fofana
  • 70A. PhillipsF
  • 18J. van LandschootF
  • 7S. PodgoreanuF
  • 39B. AdinanyF
  • 14L. De SmetF
  • 90S. OgbuehiF
Coach: Michiel Jonckheere
Charleroi 4-2-3-1
  • 30M. KoneG
  • 3K. Van Den KerkhofD
  • 44M. SowD
  • 95C. KeitaD
  • 24M. NzitaD
  • 6A. BoukamirM
  • 18Y. KhalifiM
  • 14P. PfluckeM
  • 8J. RomsaasM
  • 17A. BernierM
  • 21A. ScheidlerF
Substitutes
  • 1M. Delavallee
  • 65R. TeugelsD
  • 33N. SolheidD
  • 51M. KeraM
  • 19I. CisseM
  • 23B. DembagaM
  • 25A. ColassinF
  • 20F. MbembaF
  • 9A. BojangF
Coach: Mario Kohnen

Form going into Kortrijk vs Charleroi

Kortrijk

  • L0-3Antwerp15 August 2026

Charleroi

  • W2-0KV Mechelen22 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Lommel United16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Kortrijk6006115-140
4Charleroi6501125+715

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kortrijk vs Charleroi

  • 29 August 2026Kortrijk 1–3 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
  • 26 December 2024Kortrijk 0–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
  • 25 August 2024Charleroi 1–0 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
  • 11 May 2024Charleroi 3–1 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
  • 14 April 2024Kortrijk 1–2 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
  • 3 February 2024Kortrijk 1–0 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.