29 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

RAAL La Louvière vs KV Mechelen Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Easi Arena
Full time2 – 2

Final score: RAAL La Louvière 2-2 KV Mechelen.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% RAAL La Louvière, 29% draw, 31% KV Mechelen — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts RAAL La Louvière at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

RAAL La Louvière4%Draw93%KV Mechelen3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽M. van Brederodeassist: K. Vanrafelghem
⚽E. Filetassist: M. Courcoul
13'
Marius Courcoul
15'
Wagane Faye
17'
31'
Fredrik Hammar
⚽M. Isahassist: Z. Gruber
45'
46'
🔁F. Hammarout: B. Bafdili
46'
🔁M. Lohunanu-Mbasiout: S. Ayodele
47'
⚽S. Ayodele
73'
🔁C. Van Meirvenneout: S. Michez
🔁E. Filetout: M. Wade
76'
🔁M. Courcoulout: A. Tajaouart
76'
80'
🔁K. Vanrafelghemout: B. Boersma
84'
Adeshina Ayodele
🔁W. Fayeout: S. Gourville
85'
🔁Z. Gruberout: M. Kovacs
85'
🔁M. Isahout: L. Rousseau
89'

Match stats — RAAL La Louvière vs KV Mechelen

34%Possession66%
14Shots16
5On target7
1Corners6
2.17xG2.11

Goals against chances

RAAL La Louvière2 from 2.17 xGabout what the chances were worth
KV Mechelen2 from 2.11 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

RAAL La Louvière 3-4-3
  • 21M. PeanoG
  • 4W. FayeD
  • 33P. NkoaD
  • 25D. LamegoD
  • 18S. DelosM
  • 29M. CourcoulM
  • 48I. CoulibalyM
  • 5T. LutondaM
  • 30Z. GruberF
  • 9E. FiletF
  • 11M. IsahF
Substitutes
  • 91T. RadeletG
  • 22S. GourvilleD
  • 44M. BoukamirD
  • 23J. ItoM
  • 28B. SoumareM
  • 7M. Kovacs
  • 10M. WadeM
  • 78A. TajaouartM
  • 90L. Rousseau
Coach: Edward Still
KV Mechelen 3-4-2-1
  • 13N. MirasG
  • 2L. MarijnissenD
  • 44M. EerdhuijzenD
  • 3J. MarsaD
  • 7T. KoudouM
  • 26D. PraetM
  • 6F. HammarM
  • 17C. Van Meirvenne
  • 27K. VanrafelghemF
  • 9M. van BrederodeF
  • 19M. Lohunanu-MbasiF
Substitutes
  • 1O. De WolfG
  • 20K. CorbanieD
  • 10M. KireevM
  • 23S. MichezF
  • 39M. DecoeneM
  • 11B. BafdiliM
  • 14B. RamanF
  • 16S. AyodeleF
  • 28B. BoersmaF
Coach: Frederic Vanderbiest

Form going into RAAL La Louvière vs KV Mechelen

RAAL La Louvière

  • L0-2away to Standard Liege21 August 2026
  • L1-2Gent16 August 2026

KV Mechelen

  • L0-2away to Charleroi22 August 2026
  • D3-3Standard Liege16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14RAAL La Louvière6114712-54
16KV Mechelen6024514-92

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: RAAL La Louvière vs KV Mechelen

  • 29 August 2026RAAL La Louvière 2–2 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
  • 22 February 2026RAAL La Louvière 0–2 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
  • 30 August 2025KV Mechelen 3–2 RAAL La LouvièreJupiler Pro League
  • 30 October 2024KV Mechelen 3–1 RAAL La LouvièreCup

Leading scorers: RAAL La Louvière and KV Mechelen

RAAL La Louvière

  • M. Ubandoma5 goals

KV Mechelen

  • M. van Brederode3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.