28 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Genk vs SK Beveren Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Cegeka Arena, Genk
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Genk 4-0 SK Beveren.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Genk, 25% draw, 17% SK Beveren — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Genk at 58% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Genk99%Draw1%SK Beveren0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Zakaria El Ouahdi
7'
⚽R. Durosinmi (pen)
9'
⚽J. Ito
19'
29'
Yoni Gomis
⚽J. Kongoloassist: J. Erenbjerg
43'
46'
🔁C. Brulsout: C. Conde
46'
🔁F. Slegersout: J. Margaritha
46'
🔁K. Abrahamsout: E. Kabore
🔁J. Erenbjergout: D. Heymans
71'
🔁A. Yokoyamaout: N. Adedeji-Sternberg
71'
🔁R. Durosinmiout: A. Bibout
72'
⚽J. Kayembeassist: N. Adedeji-Sternberg
74'
🔁J. Kayembeout: Y. Medina
77'
78'
🔁B. Godeauout: J. Robatsch
🔁Z. El Ouahdiout: K. Amaro
85'

Match stats — Genk vs SK Beveren

49%Possession51%
12Shots13
7On target1
3Corners9
3.06xG0.61

Goals against chances

Genk4 from 3.06 xGmore than the chances were worth
SK Beveren0 from 0.61 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Genk 4-2-3-1
  • 28L. BrughmansG
  • 77Z. El OuahdiD
  • 6M. SmetsD
  • 44J. KongoloD
  • 18J. KayembeD
  • 21I. BangouraM
  • 8B. HeynenM
  • 10J. ItoM
  • 11J. ErenbjergM
  • 30A. YokoyamaM
  • 17R. DurosinmiF
Substitutes
  • 26T. LawalG
  • 20K. AmaroD
  • 19Y. MedinaD
  • 38D. HeymansM
  • 24N. SattlbergerM
  • 29R. MirisolaF
  • 32N. Adedeji-SternbergF
  • 23A. BiboutF
  • 33J. AfriyieF
Coach: Jess Thorup
SK Beveren 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. SchenkG
  • 21L. JansD
  • 35Y. GomisD
  • 31B. GodeauD
  • 4C. JanssensD
  • 18S. DewaeleM
  • 8F. SlegersM
  • 34K. AbrahamsM
  • 22C. BrulsM
  • 5C. LokesaM
  • 92L. MertensF
Substitutes
  • 84J. LusambaG
  • 2D. ThompsonD
  • 48J. RobatschD
  • 44C. CondeM
  • 14L. KuavitaM
  • 6D. RigoM
  • 10G. De SchryverM
  • 17J. MargarithaF
  • 9E. KaboreF
Coach: Tim Bakens

Form going into Genk vs SK Beveren

Genk

  • D4-4away to Antwerp22 August 2026
  • W3-2KVC Westerlo15 August 2026

SK Beveren

  • L0-4away to Zulte Waregem22 August 2026
  • W1-0Anderlecht16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Genk6231139+49
8SK Beveren6303710-39

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Genk vs SK Beveren

  • 28 August 2026Genk 4–0 SK BeverenJupiler Pro League
  • 8 July 2026Genk 2–1 SK BeverenFriendlies Clubs
  • 30 October 2024SK Beveren 0–2 GenkCup
  • 27 December 2020Genk 1–1 SK BeverenJupiler Pro League
  • 3 October 2020SK Beveren 1–1 GenkJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Genk and SK Beveren

Genk

  • R. Durosinmi5 goals

SK Beveren

  • C. Lokesa3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.