Leones del Norte vs Emelec Liga Pro prediction & result
Final score: Leones del Norte 1-3 Emelec.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Leones del Norte, 28% draw, 26% Emelec — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Leones del Norte at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leones del Norte vs Emelec
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22J. ArroyoG
- 4R. ArroyoD
- 23N. MonserratD
- 25B. KreimanD
- 34S. PortocarreroD
- 11M. CaramutoM
- 6Emiliano GriffaM
- 5T. CoppoM
- 7M. LuqueM
- 40Juan Luis Anangonó LeónF
- 99C. SolanoF
- 55R. BorjaM
- 13O. CabezaM
- 18J. ArellanoD
- 50Miguel Yordan Caicedo OrobioD
- 14A. RosalesD
- 2J. MoránD
- 45M. RamírezG
- 70D. PazmiñoM
- 3F. VargasD
- 12P. OrtízG
- 80O. HerreraD
- 27F. LeónD
- 2A. LeguizamónD
- 4E. SeguraD
- 5A. MinaM
- 32J. ValverdeM
- 10F. PizziniM
- 59Reixon SayaM
- 19J. RuízM
- 9R. CarrilloF
- 16S. QuinteroM
- 8G. NápoliM
- 7L. KlimowiczF
- 13Luis Fernando Gómez AnguloD
- 3I. GuerricoD
- 6V. GriffithM
- 15Luis FragozoF
- 21J. CevallosM
- 11S. ArceM
Form going into Leones del Norte vs Emelec
Leones del Norte
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Libertad9 October 2026
Emelec
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Guayaquil City FC10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Leones del Norte vs Emelec
- 30 August 2026Emelec 2–1 Leones del NorteLiga Pro
- 3 May 2026Leones del Norte 2–0 EmelecLiga Pro
- 8 October 2025Leones del Norte 0–0 EmelecCopa Ecuador
Leading scorers: Leones del Norte and Emelec
Leones del Norte
GoalsAssists
- Juan Luis Anangonó León111
Emelec
GoalsAssists
- R. Carrillo133
- L. Klimowicz62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Emelec won 3–1 at Leones del Norte. The model had leaned towards a win for Leones del Norte at 46% and given a win for Emelec 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Martín Caramuto 57' for Leones del Norte, Ronie Carrillo (penalty) 62' for Emelec, Juan Pablo·Ruiz Gomez 64' for Emelec, Reixon David Saya Paredes 90+1' for Emelec. On expected goals it finished 0.49–1.71.
How the call on Leones del Norte v Emelec has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 44% / 30% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 46% / 28% / 26%: the biggest move is Leones del Norte's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Leones del Norte win46%▲ +2
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Emelec win26%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.