18 August 2026, 03:06 UTC

CF Pachuca vs Puebla Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto
Full time2 – 3

Final score: CF Pachuca 2-3 Puebla.

Before kick-off the model made it 69% CF Pachuca, 19% draw, 12% Puebla — fair odds of 1.45, 5.26 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts CF Pachuca at 69% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CF Pachuca6%Draw92%Puebla2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽E. Gomezassist: E. Mustre
33'
⚽K. Velasco (pen)
⚽S. Rondonassist: C. Sanchez
42'
🔁E. Montielout: R. Pizarro
46'
🔁Kenedyout: N. Vallejo
46'
⚽S. Rondon (pen)
63'
65'
🔁S. Sanabriaout: A. Ramirez
🔁O. Idrissiout: G. Alvarez
77'
🔁C. Sanchezout: A. Mozo
83'
🔁S. Rondonout: A. Alcaraz
83'
83'
🔁E. Mustreout: O. Villa
83'
🔁I. Morenoout: Lucas Camilo
83'
🔁E. Gomezout: L. Hernandez
87'
🔁B. Garnicaout: C. Baltazar
90'
⚽F. Almadaassist: L. Hernandez

Match stats — CF Pachuca vs Puebla

56%Possession44%
22Shots12
4On target5
5Corners3
2.25xG2.27

Goals against chances

CF Pachuca2 from 2.25 xGabout what the chances were worth
Puebla3 from 2.27 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

CF Pachuca 4-2-3-1
  • 25C. MorenoG
  • 14C. SanchezD
  • 4Eduardo BauermannD
  • 2S. D. BarretoD
  • 6M. IsaisD
  • 30S. Rodriguez
  • 10E. MontielM
  • 29KenedyM
  • 26A. BautistaM
  • 11O. IdrissiM
  • 23S. RondonF
Substitutes
  • 31J. EulogioG
  • 15F. VenegasD
  • 13J. BerlangaD
  • 22A. MozoD
  • 206T. A. ContrerasM
  • 187G. AlvarezF
  • 7R. PizarroM
  • 9A. AlcarazM
  • 21N. VallejoF
Coach: Benjamin Mora
Puebla 4-2-3-1
  • 28D. GutierrezG
  • 12I. MorenoD
  • 5F. AlmadaD
  • 4J. VargasD
  • 7F. MonarrezD
  • 24A. OrganistaM
  • 21S. SanabriaM
  • 27B. GarnicaM
  • 26K. VelascoM
  • 11E. GomezM
  • 29E. MustreF
Substitutes
  • 182Y. OrtegaG
  • 15O. VillaD
  • 20J. R. Pachuca MartinezD
  • 2A. Leyva
  • 22C. BaltazarM
  • 10M. TomasM
  • 16A. RamirezM
  • 34Lucas CamiloM
  • 9L. HernandezF
Coach: Gerardo Espinoza

Form going into CF Pachuca vs Puebla

CF Pachuca

  • L0-1away to Leon2 August 2026
  • L1-2Club Queretaro27 July 2026
  • W3-0away to Pumas UNAM18 July 2026

Puebla

  • D1-1Guadalajara Chivas1 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Cruz Azul22 July 2026
  • W1-0away to FC Juarez18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10CF Pachuca8323138+511
8Puebla84131010013

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CF Pachuca vs Puebla

  • 18 August 2026CF Pachuca 2–3 PueblaLiga MX
  • 4 July 2026CF Pachuca 3–1 PueblaFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 March 2026CF Pachuca 2–1 PueblaLiga MX
  • 24 September 2025Puebla 2–2 CF PachucaLiga MX
  • 27 February 2025CF Pachuca 2–1 PueblaLiga MX
  • 21 September 2024Puebla 2–3 CF PachucaLiga MX

Leading scorers: CF Pachuca and Puebla

CF Pachuca

  • S. Rondón8 goals

Puebla

  • E. Mustre3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.