18 August 2026, 01:00 UTC

Necaxa vs Leon Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Necaxa 1-2 Leon.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% Necaxa, 23% draw, 16% Leon — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Necaxa at 61% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Necaxa0%Draw8%Leon92%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
⚽D. Arcila
🔁C. Vargasout: J. P. Torres Patino
46'
46'
🔁I. Morenoout: B. Colula
Naves
58'
60'
R. Echeverria
🔁Navesout: R. Martinez
64'
64'
🔁F. Beltran Cruzout: L. Valadez
64'
🔁J. Cortizoout: J. P. Dominguez Chonteco
🔁L. Faravelliout: M. Zaleta
65'
🔁R. Monrealout: E. Rodriguez
65'
⚽M. Espindolaassist: J. Valencia
65'
72'
⚽J. P. Dominguez Chontecoassist: L. Valadez
74'
🔁S. Vegasout: S. Reyes
🔁M. Espindolaout: M. Pedroza
78'
D. Leyva
79'
81'
B. Colula
85'
🔁D. Arcilaout: P. Bellon

Match stats — Necaxa vs Leon

61%Possession39%
24Shots16
8On target7
7Corners3
1.19xG0.97

Goals against chances

Necaxa1 from 1.19 xGabout what the chances were worth
Leon2 from 0.97 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Necaxa 3-4-2-1
  • 12L. JimenezG
  • 5NavesD
  • 4A. PenaD
  • 20F. MendezD
  • 30R. MonrealM
  • 6D. LeyvaM
  • 8L. FaravelliM
  • 88C. VargasM
  • 21M. EspindolaF
  • 10J. RuizF
  • 90J. ValenciaF
Substitutes
  • 1C. AndradeG
  • 33R. MartinezD
  • 15D. OchoaD
  • 14M. ZaletaM
  • 11J. P. Torres PatinoM
  • 13O. GonzalezM
  • 17R. CortezM
  • 16P. PedrazaM
  • 27M. PedrozaF
Coach: Martin Varini
Leon 4-1-4-1
  • 23O. GarciaG
  • 7I. MorenoD
  • 14J. RomanaD
  • 3J. GuevaraD
  • 5S. VegasD
  • 29I. RodriguezM
  • 16J. CortizoM
  • 20R. EcheverriaM
  • 6F. Beltran Cruz
  • 13D. ArcilaM
  • 27D. CambindoF
Substitutes
  • 12J. GonzalezG
  • 185C. Mora
  • 4B. ColulaD
  • 26S. ReyesM
  • 25P. BellonD
  • 35L. ValadezM
  • 8J. P. Dominguez ChontecoM
  • 22S. SantosM
  • 203J. LaraD
Coach: Javier Gandolfi

Form going into Necaxa vs Leon

Necaxa

  • L1-3away to Toluca3 August 2026
  • W2-1Monterrey26 July 2026
  • W2-1Atlante FC17 July 2026

Leon

  • W1-0CF Pachuca2 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Club Tijuana25 July 2026
  • L2-3Atlas18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Necaxa8224913-48
6Leon8413119+213

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Necaxa vs Leon

  • 18 August 2026Necaxa 1–2 LeonLiga MX
  • 11 July 2026Leon 0–0 NecaxaFriendlies Clubs
  • 1 March 2026Leon 2–1 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 3 January 2026Leon 1–2 NecaxaFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 August 2025Necaxa 0–1 LeonLiga MX
  • 15 March 2025Necaxa 2–1 LeonLiga MX

Leading scorers: Necaxa and Leon

Necaxa

  • J. Carranza4 goals1 assists

Leon

  • D. Cambindo3 goals1 assists
  • D. Arcila3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.