Club Tijuana vs Cruz Azul Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club Tijuana 2-1 Cruz Azul.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Club Tijuana, 21% draw, 24% Cruz Azul — fair odds of 1.82, 4.76 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Tijuana at 55% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club Tijuana vs Cruz Azul
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 2A. RodriguezG
- 3R. FernandezD
- 12J. PorozoD
- 6A. GomezD
- 33P. N. Ortiz OrozcoD
- 8I. TonaM
- 17R. ArcigaM
- 10G. MoraM
- 15I. RiveroM
- 7A. PreciadoM
- 19D. AbreuF
- 29J. HernandezG
- 16A. VegaD
- 34F. BoyaM
- 20A. ZapataM
- 26A. PerezM
- 31Y. PadillaF
- 9M. El GhezouaniF
- 13Elias ManoelF
- 11F. GonzalezF
- 23K. MierG
- 16J. MarquezD
- 12A. MontesD
- 5J. OrozcoD
- 3O. CamposD
- 19C. RodriguezM
- 6E. LiraM
- 20J. ParadelaM
- 18L. RomeroM
- 11C. EbereM
- 7N. IbanezF
- 1A. GudinoG
- 49J. Diaz
- 32C. JimenezM
- 66J. SuarezD
- 55R. GonzalezM
- 17A. GarciaM
- 10A. MontanoM
- 214M. LevyF
- 21G. FernandezF
Form going into Club Tijuana vs Cruz Azul
Club Tijuana
- D0-0away to Atletico San Luis1 August 2026
Cruz Azul
- L2-3Atlante FC2 August 2026
- W2-1Puebla22 July 2026
- W3-2away to Atletico San Luis18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Tijuana vs Cruz Azul
- 17 August 2026Club Tijuana 2–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 18 April 2026Cruz Azul 1–1 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 29 September 2025Club Tijuana 2–0 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 1 February 2025Club Tijuana 2–3 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 1 December 2024Cruz Azul 3–0 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 28 November 2024Club Tijuana 3–0 Cruz AzulLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club Tijuana and Cruz Azul
Club Tijuana
- G. Mora4 goals1 assists
Cruz Azul
- J. Márquez3 goals1 assists
- N. Ibáñez3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.