Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Santos Laguna 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Santos Laguna, 24% draw, 30% Guadalajara Chivas — fair odds of 2.17, 4.17 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santos Laguna at 46% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1C. AcevedoG
- 3M. CuevasD
- 14E. OronaD
- 18F. PardoD
- 25F. SanchezD
- 17E. EcheverriaD
- 21F. VillalbaM
- 5A. LopezM
- 10E. BullaudeM
- 7D. GonzalezF
- 19E. AguirreF
- 33H. HolguinG
- 4J. AbellaD
- 28J. PerezD
- 22K. PiconD
- 8S. Mariscal MurraM
- 6J. GuemezM
- 15J. ManchaM
- 26R. SordoM
- 77K. PalaciosM
- 1R. RangelG
- 3D. Campillo Del CampoD
- 16L. ReyD
- 7L. RomoD
- 14H. CamberosM
- 37R. LedezmaM
- 6O. GoveaM
- 33J. CarrilloM
- 11B. GutierrezM
- 17R. MarinF
- 25R. AlvaradoF
- 13O. WhalleyG
- 24M. GomezD
- 56A. ChavezD
- 28F. GonzalezM
- 19K. CastanedaM
- 10E. AlvarezF
- 30S. Sandoval
- 9A. SepulvedaF
- 18J. PerezM
Form going into Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas
Santos Laguna
- L0-3away to Club America2 August 2026
- L0-1Atlas26 July 2026
- L2-3away to Monterrey19 July 2026
Guadalajara Chivas
- D1-1away to Puebla1 August 2026
- W1-0FC Juarez25 July 2026
- L0-2Toluca19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas
- 17 August 2026Santos Laguna 0–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 14 March 2026Guadalajara Chivas 3–0 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 11 August 2025Santos Laguna 1–0 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 12 January 2025Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 6 November 2024Santos Laguna 0–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 14 January 2024Guadalajara Chivas 1–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Santos Laguna and Guadalajara Chivas
Santos Laguna
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Guadalajara Chivas
- R. Alvarado3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.