5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Charleroi 2-3 Union St. Gilloise.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Charleroi, 29% draw, 30% Union St. Gilloise — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Charleroi at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
Ondrej Kricfalusi
Mardochée Nzita
9'
12'
⚽Mohamed Koné (OG)
⚽Freddy Mbembaassist: Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
27'
⚽Patrick Pflückeassist: Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
41'
44'
⚽Adem Zorgane
45+2'
Louis Patris
49'
⚽Kamiel Van De Perreassist: Besfort Zeneli
🔁Freddy Mbembaout: Antoine Colassin
64'
🔁Amine Boukamirout: Triston Rowe
64'
72'
🔁Raul Floruczout: Darius Olaru
72'
🔁Louis Patrisout: Denzel De Roeve
🔁Patrick Pflückeout: Adama Bojang
72'
80'
🔁Mateo Biondicout: Ilan Hurtevent
80'
🔁Besfort Zeneliout: Nikki Havenaar
84'
🔁Adem Zorganeout: Rob Schoofs
🔁Mardochée Nzitaout: Gaku Nawata
86'

Match stats — Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise

60%Possession40%
20Shots17
5On target7
5Corners7

Line-ups

Charleroi 4-2-3-1
  • 30M. KonéG
  • 3K. Van Den KerkhofD
  • 4A. OusouD
  • 95C. KeitaD
  • 24M. NzitaD
  • 6A. BoukamirM
  • 18Y. KhalifiM
  • 14P. PflückeM
  • 8J. RomsaasM
  • 20F. Situmona MbembaM
  • 21A. ScheidlerF
Substitutes
  • 9A. BojangF
  • 19I. CisseM
  • 25A. ColassinF
  • 1M. DelavalléeG
  • 51Mory KeraM
  • 13G. NawataM
  • 2Triston RoweD
  • 33N. SolheidD
  • 44M. SowD
Coach: Mario Kohnen
Union St. Gilloise 3-4-1-2
  • 12H. KoffiG
  • 5K. Mac AllisterD
  • 29M. SyllaD
  • 80O. KričfalušiD
  • 27L. PatrisM
  • 6K. Van de PerreM
  • 8A. ZorganeM
  • 11Guilherme Henriques da Silva CarvalhoM
  • 23B. ZeneliM
  • 30R. FloruczF
  • 9M. BiondicF
Substitutes
  • 17R. SchoofsM
  • 14I. PavlićM
  • 38R. MofokengF
  • 25I. HurteventF
  • 55N. HavenaarD
  • 28D. OlaruM
  • 21D. De RoeveD
  • 1V. ChambaereG
  • 20D. AquinoF
Coach: D. Hubert

Form going into Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise

Charleroi

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1away to Kortrijk29 August 2026
  • W2-0KV Mechelen22 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Lommel United16 August 2026
  • W3-1OH Leuven9 August 2026

Union St. Gilloise

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0away to St. Truiden2 September 2026
  • W3-0Anderlecht30 August 2026
  • D0-0Zulte Waregem15 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Bodo/Glimt11 August 2026
  • W5-1away to KVC Westerlo8 August 2026

What these results say

  • Charleroi won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Charleroi scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Union St. Gilloise scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Union St. Gilloise had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Charleroi119022613+1327
1Union St. Gilloise11920307+2329

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise

  • 11 February 2026Union St. Gilloise 4–1 CharleroiCup
  • 4 February 2026Charleroi 0–0 Union St. GilloiseCup
  • 14 December 2025Charleroi 1–1 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
  • 18 October 2025Union St. Gilloise 3–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
  • 11 January 2025Charleroi 1–2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise

Charleroi

GoalsAssists

  • A. Scheidler62
  • F. Situmona Mbemba53

Union St. Gilloise

GoalsAssists

  • R. Florucz50
  • R. Mofokeng42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Union St. Gilloise won 3–2 at Charleroi. The model had leaned towards a win for Charleroi at 41% and given a win for Union St. Gilloise 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Mohamed Koné (own goal) 12' for Union St. Gilloise, Freddy Mbemba 27' for Charleroi, Patrick Pflücke 41' for Charleroi, Adem Zorgane 44' for Union St. Gilloise, Kamiel Van De Perre 49' for Union St. Gilloise.

How the call on Charleroi v Union St. Gilloise has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Charleroi's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Charleroi win41%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Union St. Gilloise win30%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.