5 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Daio Wasabi Stayen, Sint-Truiden
Full time4 – 0

Final score: St. Truiden 4-0 RAAL La Louvière.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% St. Truiden, 27% draw, 27% RAAL La Louvière — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

St. Truiden at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St. Truiden99%Draw1%RAAL La Louvière0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
Mustapha Isah Ubandoma
Ilias Sebaoui
13'
⚽Ryan Merlenassist: Kaito Matsuzawa
41'
🔁Shogo Taniguchiout: Wolke Janssens
45'
⚽Robert-Jan Vanwesemaelassist: Ryan Merlen
54'
59'
🔁Thierry Lutondaout: Nolan Gillot
60'
🔁Elias Filetout: Anas Tajaouart
61'
Shaquil Delos
⚽Samed Baždarassist: Abdoulaye Sissako
73'
🔁Ryotaro Arakiout: Nelson Ishiwatari
74'
74'
🔁Mustapha Isah Ubandomaout: Léandro Rousseau
🔁Robert-Jan Vanwesemaelout: Joedrick Pupe
74'
74'
🔁Shaquil Delosout: Matyas Kovacs
⚽Samed Baždarassist: Abdoulaye Sissako
78'
🔁Ilias Sebaouiout: Nathanael Mbuku
80'
🔁Samed Baždarout: Oumar Diouf
84'

Match stats — St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière

73%Possession27%
23Shots9
7On target1
12Corners5

Line-ups

St. Truiden 4-2-3-1
  • 16L. KokuboG
  • 60R. VanwesemaelD
  • 5S. TaniguchiD
  • 26V. MusliuD
  • 3T. HataD
  • 8A. SissakoM
  • 14R. MerlenM
  • 38K. MatsuzawaM
  • 71R. ArakiM
  • 10I. SebaouiM
  • 9S. BaždarF
Substitutes
  • 77O. DioufF
  • 33A. DirikenM
  • 18N. IshiwatariM
  • 22W. JanssensD
  • 21M. LendfersG
  • 11N. MbukuF
  • 23J. PupeD
  • 99S. ShinkawaM
Coach: F. De Meyer
RAAL La Louvière 3-4-3
  • 21M. PeanoG
  • 44M. BoukamirD
  • 33P. NkoaD
  • 99Y. OkouD
  • 18S. DelosM
  • 29M. CourcoulM
  • 48I. CoulibalyM
  • 5T. LutondaM
  • 30Z. GruberF
  • 9E. FiletF
  • 11M. UbandomaF
Substitutes
  • 10M. WadeM
  • 78A. TajaouartM
  • 28B. SoumaréM
  • 90L. RousseauF
  • 91T. RadeletG
  • 7M. KovácsM
  • 23J. ItoM
  • 22S. GourvilleD
  • 4W. FayeD
Coach: Edward Still

Form going into St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière

St. Truiden

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3Union St. Gilloise2 September 2026
  • W4-1away to Antwerp30 August 2026
  • L2-4away to Omonia Nicosia27 August 2026
  • W1-0Omonia Nicosia20 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Cercle Brugge14 August 2026

RAAL La Louvière

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2KV Mechelen29 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Standard Liege21 August 2026
  • L1-2Gent16 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Anderlecht9 August 2026

What these results say

  • St. Truiden scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • St. Truiden conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for St. Truiden had three goals or more.
  • RAAL La Louvière did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • RAAL La Louvière conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • RAAL La Louvière scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12St. Truiden113262222011
17RAAL La Louvière112181324-117

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière

  • 24 January 2026RAAL La Louvière 1–2 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
  • 17 August 2025St. Truiden 2–1 RAAL La LouvièreJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: St. Truiden and RAAL La Louvière

St. Truiden

GoalsAssists

  • S. Baždar50
  • I. Sebaoui43

RAAL La Louvière

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ubandoma60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

St. Truiden beat RAAL La Louvière 4–0. The model had made a win for St. Truiden its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ryan Merlen 41' for St. Truiden, Robert-Jan Vanwesemael 54' for St. Truiden, Samed Baždar 73' for St. Truiden, Samed Baždar 78' for St. Truiden.

How the call on St. Truiden v RAAL La Louvière has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 49% / 26% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is St. Truiden's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. St. Truiden win46%▼ −3
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. RAAL La Louvière win27%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.