St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: St. Truiden 4-0 RAAL La Louvière.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% St. Truiden, 27% draw, 27% RAAL La Louvière — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Truiden at 46% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière
Line-ups
- 16L. KokuboG
- 60R. VanwesemaelD
- 5S. TaniguchiD
- 26V. MusliuD
- 3T. HataD
- 8A. SissakoM
- 14R. MerlenM
- 38K. MatsuzawaM
- 71R. ArakiM
- 10I. SebaouiM
- 9S. BaždarF
- 77O. DioufF
- 33A. DirikenM
- 18N. IshiwatariM
- 22W. JanssensD
- 21M. LendfersG
- 11N. MbukuF
- 23J. PupeD
- 99S. ShinkawaM
- 21M. PeanoG
- 44M. BoukamirD
- 33P. NkoaD
- 99Y. OkouD
- 18S. DelosM
- 29M. CourcoulM
- 48I. CoulibalyM
- 5T. LutondaM
- 30Z. GruberF
- 9E. FiletF
- 11M. UbandomaF
- 10M. WadeM
- 78A. TajaouartM
- 28B. SoumaréM
- 90L. RousseauF
- 91T. RadeletG
- 7M. KovácsM
- 23J. ItoM
- 22S. GourvilleD
- 4W. FayeD
Form going into St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière
St. Truiden
- L0-3Union St. Gilloise2 September 2026
- W4-1away to Antwerp30 August 2026
- D3-3away to Cercle Brugge14 August 2026
RAAL La Louvière
- D2-2KV Mechelen29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Standard Liege21 August 2026
- L1-2Gent16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | St. Truiden | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 8 |
| 14 | RAAL La Louvière | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière
- 5 September 2026St. Truiden 4–0 RAAL La LouvièreJupiler Pro League
- 24 January 2026RAAL La Louvière 1–2 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 17 August 2025St. Truiden 2–1 RAAL La LouvièreJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: St. Truiden and RAAL La Louvière
St. Truiden
- S. Baždar4 goals
- R. Merlen3 goals3 assists
RAAL La Louvière
- M. Ubandoma5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.