5 September 2026, 11:30 UTC

Newcastle vs Bournemouth Premier League prediction & result

Newcastle
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Newcastle, 28% draw, 31% Bournemouth — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Newcastle at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽Marcus Tavernier
Anthony Elanga
28'
35'
⚽Malick Thiaw (OG)
⚽Harvey Barnesassist: Lewis Hall
37'
Yoane Wissa
57'
🔁Joe Willockout: Matias Fernandez-Pardo
63'
🔁Lewis Mileyout: Jacob Ramsey
63'
66'
Justin Kluivert
Matthias Jaissle
71'
76'
🔁Tyler Adamsout: Lewis Cook
76'
🔁Justin Kluivertout: David Brooks
🔁Nico Gonzálezout: Sean Steur
77'
🔁Anthony Elangaout: Jacob Murphy
77'
87'
Adrien Truffert
⚽Jacob Ramsey
88'
89'
🔁Marcus Tavernierout: Daniel Jebbison
89'
🔁Rayan Vitor Simplício Rochaout: Ben Gannon-Doak
🔁Lewis Hallout: Valentino Livramento
90'
90+4'
Adam Smith
90+6'
🔁Alex Scottout: Ryan Christie

Match stats — Newcastle vs Bournemouth

57%Possession43%
8Shots17
2On target5
4Corners3

Line-ups

Newcastle 4-2-3-1
  • 21L. HorníčekG
  • 37A. DedićD
  • 12M. ThiawD
  • 4S. BotmanD
  • 3L. HallD
  • 6Nico GonzálezM
  • 67L. MileyM
  • 19A. ElangaM
  • 28J. WillockM
  • 11H. BarnesM
  • 9Y. WissaF
Substitutes
  • 20M. Fernandez-PardoF
  • 23J. MurphyM
  • 1N. PopeG
  • 2T. LivramentoD
  • 5F. SchärD
  • 8A. BambaM
  • 14Sean SteurM
  • 17B. TouréF
  • 41J. RamseyM
Coach: Matthias Jaissle
Bournemouth 4-2-3-1
  • 1Đ. PetrovićG
  • 15A. SmithD
  • 5J. HillD
  • 14António SilvaD
  • 3A. TruffertD
  • 12T. AdamsM
  • 8A. ScottM
  • 37RayanM
  • 19J. KluivertM
  • 16M. TavernierM
  • 9EvanilsonF
Substitutes
  • 24Juanlu SánchezM
  • 11B. DoakF
  • 10R. ChristieM
  • 7D. BrooksM
  • 18B. DiakitéD
  • 6J. SolerD
  • 20M. Di GregorioG
  • 29D. JebbisonF
  • 4L. CookM
Coach: M. Rose

Form going into Newcastle vs Bournemouth

Newcastle

  • W2-0away to Tottenham29 August 2026
  • D2-2Liverpool23 August 2026

Bournemouth

  • D1-1Everton29 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Manchester City23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Newcastle412178-15
15Bournemouth403167-13

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Newcastle vs Bournemouth

  • 5 September 2026Newcastle 2–2 BournemouthPremier League
  • 18 April 2026Newcastle 1–2 BournemouthPremier League
  • 10 January 2026Newcastle 2–2 BournemouthFA Cup
  • 21 September 2025Bournemouth 0–0 NewcastlePremier League
  • 18 January 2025Newcastle 1–4 BournemouthPremier League
  • 25 August 2024Bournemouth 1–1 NewcastlePremier League

Leading scorers: Newcastle and Bournemouth

Newcastle

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Bournemouth

  • M. Tavernier3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.