12 September 2026, 18:15 UTC

CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali First League prediction & result

National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia
Full time4 – 1

Final score: CSKA Sofia 4-1 Arda Kardzhali.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% CSKA Sofia, 30% draw, 28% Arda Kardzhali — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts CSKA Sofia at 42% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CSKA Sofia99%Draw1%Arda Kardzhali0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽Birsent Karagaren
34'
Dominik Yankov
⚽Stefano Sensi (pen)
41'
42'
Vyacheslav Velev
Jean-Philippe Gbamin
45'
🔁Cătălin Ituout: Leonardo Augusto dos Santos Pereira
46'
46'
🔁Dominik Yankovout: Adama Ardile Traore
⚽Leonardo Augusto dos Santos Pereira
48'
⚽Joel·Zwarts
53'
🔁Stefano Sensiout: petko panayotov
66'
🔁James Eto'oout: mohamed brahimi
66'
66'
🔁Birsent Karagarenout: Atanas Kabov
66'
🔁Georgi Nikolaev Nikolovout: Preslav·Bachev
🔁Joel·Zwartsout: Santiago Godoy
71'
⚽Ioannis Pittas (pen)
72'
🔁David Samuel Custódio Limaout: Barry Cotter
82'
85'
86'
89'
🔁Viktor Popovout: Dimitar Velkovski
90+3'

Match stats — CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali

57%Possession43%
17Shots7
9On target6
4Corners3

Line-ups

CSKA Sofia 4-1-2-1-2
  • 21F. LapoukhovG
  • 19A. YordanovM
  • 5J. GbaminM
  • 14T. IvanovD
  • 2PastorD
  • 6Bruno JordãoM
  • 8S. SensiM
  • 99J. Eto'oM
  • 67C. ItuM
  • 28I. PittasF
  • 10J. ZwartsF
Substitutes
  • 30P. PanayotovM
  • 32Facundo Santiago RodríguezD
  • 94I. Solet BomawokoM
  • 4Dinis AlmeidaD
  • 11M. BrahimiF
  • 80G. ChorbadzhiyskiM
  • 37B. CotterD
  • 25D. EvtimovG
  • 9S. GodoyF
Coach: Daniel Morales
Arda Kardzhali 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. GospodinovG
  • 6V. PopovD
  • 24M. PaskalevD
  • 5V. LyubenovD
  • 21V. VelevD
  • 80L. KotevM
  • 10S. KovachevF
  • 91S. IvanovF
  • 8D. YankovM
  • 99B. KaragarenF
  • 9G. NikolovF
Substitutes
  • 35D. VelkovskiD
  • 18S. VasilevD
  • 44Adama Ardile TraoréD
  • 11A. KabovF
  • 22Y. GeorgievG
  • 16P. BachevF
  • 26B. AkandzhaM
  • 39A. VutovM
Coach: A. Tunchev

Form going into CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali

CSKA Sofia

  • D1-1away to Spartak Varna5 September 2026
  • W3-1Cherno More Varna30 August 2026
  • W5-0Botev Vratsa16 August 2026

Arda Kardzhali

  • L2-3Botev Plovdiv4 September 2026
  • W2-0Botev Vratsa31 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv24 August 2026
  • W3-1Lokomotiv Sofia17 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2CSKA Sofia9720236+1723
5Arda Kardzhali95131411+316

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali

  • 12 September 2026CSKA Sofia 4–1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
  • 6 February 2026CSKA Sofia 3–1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
  • 18 September 2025Arda Kardzhali 1–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
  • 31 May 2025Arda Kardzhali 1–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
  • 26 February 2025CSKA Sofia 2–1 Arda KardzhaliCup
  • 16 February 2025CSKA Sofia 2–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.