6 September 2026, 18:15 UTC

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets First League prediction & result

Stadion Lokomotiv, Sofia
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Lokomotiv Sofia 1-2 Ludogorets.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Lokomotiv Sofia, 28% draw, 31% Ludogorets — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lokomotiv Sofia at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lokomotiv Sofia0%Draw5%Ludogorets95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽I. Chochevassist: A. Marinov
19'
Aleksandar Marinov
⚽Caue Caruzoassist: E. Dost
29'
Erol Dost
33'
46'
🔁P. Stanicout: A. Camara
53'
🔁A. Marinovout: Caio Vidal
Krasimir Stanoev
55'
Angel Lyaskov
57'
Georgi Minchev
61'
62'
🔁B. Tekpeteyout: Erick Marcus
76'
⚽I. Chochevassist: Erick Marcus
80'
🔁I. Chochevout: F. Kaloc
🔁Eiroout: R. Daskalov
81'
🔁E. Dostout: K. Miloshev
81'
🔁Caue Caruzoout: M. Papazov
81'
🔁G. Minchevout: A. Aralica
81'
81'
🔁Rwan Cruzout: K. Duah
🔁S. Delevout: N. Penev
82'
88'
Hossam Abdelmaguid
90+6'
Hendrik Bonmann

Line-ups

Lokomotiv Sofia 4-2-3-1
  • 24A. LyubenovG
  • 6EiroD
  • 3K. KostovD
  • 44B. KatsarovD
  • 14A. LyaskovD
  • 5E. DostM
  • 31K. StanoevM
  • 77Caue Caruzo
  • 20D. KostadinovM
  • 7S. DelevM
  • 9G. MinchevF
Substitutes
  • 19M. MitkovD
  • 99M. VelichkovG
  • 21K. ChachevM
  • 71N. PenevM
  • 22R. DaskalovD
  • 26K. MiloshevM
  • 17M. PapazovM
  • 42N. NeychevD
  • 16M. MedfaiM
Coach: Lyuboslav Penev
Ludogorets 4-1-4-1
  • 39H. BonmannG
  • 17SonD
  • 4H. AbdelmaguidD
  • 3A. NedyalkovD
  • 42S. ShishkovD
  • 23D. DuarteM
  • 40A. MarinovM
  • 18I. ChochevM
  • 14P. StanicM
  • 37B. TekpeteyM
  • 12Rwan CruzF
Substitutes
  • 82I. YordanovM
  • 2J. AnderssonD
  • 13I. GrbicG
  • 15E. KurtulusD
  • 22M. PolendakovD
  • 26F. KalocM
  • 7A. Salido TajeroF
  • 20A. CamaraM
  • 77Erick MarcusM
Coach: Thomas Reis

Form going into Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets

Lokomotiv Sofia

  • D2-2away to Dunav Ruse31 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Arda Kardzhali17 August 2026

Ludogorets

  • D1-1away to Spartak Varna30 August 2026
  • D1-1Slavia Sofia22 August 2026
  • W2-0Botev Plovdiv15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Lokomotiv Sofia90451018-84
3Ludogorets9720167+923

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets

  • 6 September 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 1–2 LudogoretsFirst League
  • 7 February 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 1–3 LudogoretsFirst League
  • 17 August 2025Ludogorets 0–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
  • 9 March 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 1–2 LudogoretsFirst League
  • 21 September 2024Ludogorets 2–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
  • 16 March 2024Ludogorets 6–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.