Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets First League prediction & result
Final score: Lokomotiv Sofia 1-2 Ludogorets.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Lokomotiv Sofia, 28% draw, 31% Ludogorets — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Lokomotiv Sofia at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 24A. LyubenovG
- 6EiroD
- 3K. KostovD
- 44B. KatsarovD
- 14A. LyaskovD
- 5E. DostM
- 31K. StanoevM
- 77Caue Caruzo
- 20D. KostadinovM
- 7S. DelevM
- 9G. MinchevF
- 19M. MitkovD
- 99M. VelichkovG
- 21K. ChachevM
- 71N. PenevM
- 22R. DaskalovD
- 26K. MiloshevM
- 17M. PapazovM
- 42N. NeychevD
- 16M. MedfaiM
- 39H. BonmannG
- 17SonD
- 4H. AbdelmaguidD
- 3A. NedyalkovD
- 42S. ShishkovD
- 23D. DuarteM
- 40A. MarinovM
- 18I. ChochevM
- 14P. StanicM
- 37B. TekpeteyM
- 12Rwan CruzF
- 82I. YordanovM
- 2J. AnderssonD
- 13I. GrbicG
- 15E. KurtulusD
- 22M. PolendakovD
- 26F. KalocM
- 7A. Salido TajeroF
- 20A. CamaraM
- 77Erick MarcusM
Form going into Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Sofia
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Dunav Ruse31 August 2026
- L1-3away to Arda Kardzhali17 August 2026
- L1-3CSKA 19488 August 2026
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia31 July 2026
- L1-2Levski Sofia25 July 2026
Ludogorets
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Spartak Varna30 August 2026
- D1-1Slavia Sofia22 August 2026
- W2-0Botev Plovdiv15 August 2026
- W3-2away to Cherno More Varna9 August 2026
- W2-1Botev Vratsa2 August 2026
What these results say
- Lokomotiv Sofia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ludogorets went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ludogorets scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ludogorets conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 9 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets
- 7 February 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 1–3 LudogoretsFirst League
- 17 August 2025Ludogorets 0–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 9 March 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 1–2 LudogoretsFirst League
- 21 September 2024Ludogorets 2–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 16 March 2024Ludogorets 6–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
Leading scorers: Lokomotiv Sofia and Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Sofia
GoalsAssists
- S. Delev11
- D. Kostadinov10
Ludogorets
GoalsAssists
- B. Tekpetey20
- Rwan Cruz12
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ludogorets won 2–1 at Lokomotiv Sofia. The model had leaned towards a win for Lokomotiv Sofia at 41% and given a win for Ludogorets 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: I. Chochev 4' for Ludogorets, Caue Caruzo 29' for Lokomotiv Sofia, I. Chochev 76' for Ludogorets.
How the call on Lokomotiv Sofia v Ludogorets has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Lokomotiv Sofia's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Lokomotiv Sofia win41%▼ −4
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Ludogorets win31%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.