29 October 2026, 00:00 UTC

Cienciano vs Atletico Grau Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco
Referee: Michael Espinoza
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Cienciano 3-0 Atletico Grau.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Cienciano, 28% draw, 26% Atletico Grau — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cienciano at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cienciano99%Draw1%Atletico Grau0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
Paulo De La Cruz
Ademar Robles
38'
•Neri Bandiera
45+6'
🔁Ray Sandovalout: Matias Succar
45'
🔁Ademar Roblesout: Gerson Barreto
45'
⚽Carlos Garcésassist: Matias Succar
53'
57'
🔁Yamir Ruidiaz Misitichout: Lucas Acevedo
57'
🔁Pablo Lavandeiraout: Luis Benites
58'
🔁Paulo De La Cruzout: Aldair Vásquez
67'
🔁Gabriel Alfaroout: Nicolás Delgadillo
67'
🔁Mauro Da Luzout: Adrián Fernández
⚽Carlos Garcésassist: Cristian Souza
73'
⚽Carlos Garcésassist: Cristian Souza
77'
🔁Carlos Cabelloout: Claudio Nuñez
79'
🔁Neri Bandieraout: Gonzalo Aguirre
79'
🔁Cristian Souzaout: Didier La Torre
83'
90+2'
Rafael Guarderas

Match stats — Cienciano vs Atletico Grau

64%Possession36%
21Shots5
5On target0
7Corners5
1.67xG0.37

Goals against chances

Cienciano3 from 1.67 xGmore than the chances were worth
Atletico Grau0 from 0.37 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cienciano 4-2-3-1
  • 1G. FalcónG
  • 22C. CabelloD
  • 4M. AmondarainD
  • 3K. BecerraD
  • 16M. MartinichD
  • 5S. AriasM
  • 29A. RoblesM
  • 7C. SouzaM
  • 17R. SandovalM
  • 11N. BandieraM
  • 21C. GarcésF
Substitutes
  • 19M. SuccarF
  • 88G. BarretoM
  • 8G. AguirreM
  • 26R. AguilarD
  • 39H. CaparóM
  • 14S. CaveroD
  • 31Í. EspinozaG
  • 18D. La TorreF
  • 13C. NúñezD
Coach: Horacio Melgarejo
Atletico Grau 4-2-3-1
  • 1P. ÁlvarezG
  • 4D. RodríguezD
  • 27R. TapiaD
  • 3I. TapiaD
  • 25G. AlfaroD
  • 5R. GuarderasM
  • 21E. CorreaM
  • 10P. de la CruzM
  • 15P. LavandeiraM
  • 77M. da LuzM
  • 24Yamir Ruidíaz MisitichF
Substitutes
  • 16J. AtaupillcoD
  • 7D. BarretoM
  • 96L. BenítesM
  • 33J. CalderónG
  • 11N. DelgadilloF
  • 99A. FernándezF
  • 13F. OncoyM
  • 2L. AcevedoD
  • 20A. VásquezM
Coach: G. Ameli

Form going into Cienciano vs Atletico Grau

Cienciano

Primera División

  • L1-3away to Comerciantes Unidos25 October 2026
  • W1-0UTC Cajamarca18 October 2026

Atletico Grau

Primera División

  • D1-1ADT23 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Alianza Lima18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Cienciano33155135446+850
14Atletico Grau33107163241-937

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cienciano vs Atletico Grau

  • 9 May 2026Atletico Grau 1–2 CiencianoPrimera División
  • 24 August 2025Cienciano 1–0 Atletico GrauPrimera División
  • 5 April 2025Atletico Grau 1–1 CiencianoPrimera División
  • 17 August 2024Cienciano 1–0 Atletico GrauPrimera División
  • 9 March 2024Atletico Grau 1–1 CiencianoPrimera División
  • 30 September 2023Cienciano 2–0 Atletico GrauPrimera División

Leading scorers: Cienciano and Atletico Grau

Cienciano

GoalsAssists

  • C. Garcés184
  • A. Hohberg125
  • N. Bandiera91

Atletico Grau

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cienciano beat Atletico Grau 3–0. The model had made a win for Cienciano its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Carlos Garcés 53' for Cienciano, Carlos Garcés 73' for Cienciano, Carlos Garcés 77' for Cienciano. On expected goals it finished 1.67–0.37.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.