30 October 2026, 22:00 UTC

Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion Primera División prediction & result

Monumental David Arellano, San Diego
Referee: Gaston Philippe
Full time6 – 1

Final score: Colo Colo 6-1 Universidad de Concepcion.

Before kick-off the model made it 69% Colo Colo, 20% draw, 11% Universidad de Concepcion — fair odds of 1.45, 5.00 and 9.09.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Colo Colo at 69%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Colo Colo99%Draw1%Universidad de Concepcion0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Álvaro Madridassist: Francisco Marchant
7'
⚽Marcelo Correaassist: G Díaz
9'
⚽Marcelo Correa
20'
Joaquín Sosa
24'
Arturo Vidal
34'
⚽Marcelo Correaassist: Erick Wiemberg
36'
40'
Antonio Diaz
⚽Marcelo Correaassist: Arturo Vidal
45'
45'
🔁Luis Rojasout: Cristopher Mesias Sepulveda
45'
🔁Osvaldo Gonzálezout: Benjamín Sáez
47'
⚽Jeison Joaquin Fuentealba Vergaraassist: Facundo Mater
⚽Joaquín Sosaassist: Víctor Méndez
52'
57'
•Benjamín Sáez
57'
Benjamín Sáez
59'
🔁Facundo Materout: Bastian Ubal
59'
🔁Rogelio Funesout: Cecilio Waterman
🔁Arturo Vidalout: Cristian Diaz
63'
🔁Joaquín Sosaout: Diego Ulloa
63'
🔁Marcelo Correaout: Maximiliano Romero
68'
🔁Álvaro Madridout: Claudio Aquino
68'
🔁Jonathan Villagraout: Javier Méndez
76'
81'
🔁Bryan Ogazout: Francisco Herrera

Match stats — Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion

72%Possession28%
13Shots11
10On target1
5Corners3
2.18xG0.98

Goals against chances

Colo Colo6 from 2.18 xGmore than the chances were worth
Universidad de Concepcion1 from 0.98 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Colo Colo 4-3-3
  • 29VózinhaG
  • 28J. RojasD
  • 2J. VillagraD
  • 4J. SosaD
  • 21É. WiembergD
  • 8Á. MadridM
  • 23A. VidalM
  • 5V. MéndezM
  • 7F. MarchantF
  • 9J. CorreaF
  • 54G DíazF
Substitutes
  • 26D. UlloaD
  • 22C. AquinoM
  • 6T. AlarcónM
  • 11M. BoladosF
  • 1F. De PaulG
  • 42C. DiazM
  • 20J. MéndezD
  • 10L. PastránF
  • 19M. RomeroF
Coach: F. Ortiz
Universidad de Concepcion 4-4-2
  • 1J. BrounG
  • 17M. GonzálezD
  • 4O. GonzálezD
  • 3M. BarbieriD
  • 11A. DíazD
  • 25H. SalgadoM
  • 8F. MaterM
  • 16B. OgazM
  • 10J. FuentealbaM
  • 20L. RojasF
  • 22R. Funes MoriF
Substitutes
  • 34F. HerreraM
  • 19C. MesíasD
  • 15Y. OyanedelD
  • 26T. RocoF
  • 13J. SanhuezaG
  • 32B. SaezD
  • 6B. UbalD
  • 7I. GonzálezF
  • 18C. WatermanF
Coach: Cristián Muñoz

Form going into Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion

Colo Colo

Primera División

  • D1-1away to Palestino25 October 2026
  • L2-5away to Coquimbo Unido11 October 2026
  • D1-1Concepción13 September 2026

Universidad de Concepcion

Primera División

  • L0-1Deportes Limache25 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Cobresal10 October 2026
  • L0-2Huachipato2 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Colo Colo2719445930+2961
15Universidad de Concepcion2775152249-2726

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion

  • 26 April 2026Universidad de Concepcion 1–2 Colo ColoPrimera División
  • 17 February 2021Colo Colo 1–0 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
  • 13 January 2021Universidad de Concepcion 1–1 Colo ColoPrimera División
  • 29 February 2020Colo Colo 2–2 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
  • 15 September 2019Universidad de Concepcion 3–1 Colo ColoPrimera División
  • 22 February 2019Colo Colo 1–0 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División

Leading scorers: Colo Colo and Universidad de Concepcion

Colo Colo

GoalsAssists

  • J. Correa186
  • M. Romero81
  • L. Hernández74

Universidad de Concepcion

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Colo Colo beat Universidad de Concepcion 6–1. The model had made a win for Colo Colo its most likely outcome, at 69%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Álvaro Madrid 7' for Colo Colo, Marcelo Correa 9' for Colo Colo, Marcelo Correa 20' for Colo Colo, Marcelo Correa 36' for Colo Colo, Marcelo Correa 45' for Colo Colo, Jeison Joaquin Fuentealba Vergara 47' for Universidad de Concepcion, Joaquín Sosa 52' for Colo Colo. Sent off: Benjamín Sáez (Universidad de Concepcion) 57'. On expected goals it finished 2.18–0.98.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Colo Colo a 94.6% chance to win the league: 97.0% after a win, 90.1% after a draw, 84.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 97.0%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.

For Universidad de Concepcion the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 95.9% going in: 82.7% after a win, 94.1% after a draw, 97.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 97.7%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.