29 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF Allsvenskan prediction & result

Gamla Ullevi, Gothenburg
Referee: Sajad Al Hakim
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Orgryte IS 1-2 Mjallby AIF.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Orgryte IS, 26% draw, 34% Mjallby AIF — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Orgryte IS at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Orgryte IS0%Draw5%Mjallby AIF95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽Jacob Bergstromassist: Jeppe Kjaer Jensen
⚽Mikael Dyrestamassist: Adam Andersson
18'
Benjamin laturnus
23'
45+3'
Jesper Gustavsson
49'
⚽Tony Miettinenassist: Jeppe Kjaer Jensen
🔁Charlie Vindehallout: william hofvander
56'
🔁michael parkerout: Daniel Paulson
56'
Viktor Ekblom
64'
72'
🔁Jeppe Kjaer Jensenout: Áki Samuelsen
🔁Johan Hammarout: Anton Andreasson
72'
🔁Benjamin laturnusout: Liam Filip Andersson
72'
🔁Viktor Ekblomout: David obou
78'
85'
🔁Max Nielsenout: Ludvig Tidstrand
85'
🔁William Granathout: Ian Hoffmann

Match stats — Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF

44%Possession56%
13Shots13
3On target5
3Corners3
0.81xG1.75

Goals against chances

Orgryte IS1 from 0.81 xGabout what the chances were worth
Mjallby AIF2 from 1.75 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Orgryte IS 5-3-2
  • 44H. GustafssonG
  • 18A. AnderssonD
  • 25J. HammarD
  • 6M. DyrestamD
  • 5C. StyffeD
  • 2M. ParkerD
  • 23O. Parker-PriceM
  • 7C. VindehallM
  • 8B. LaturnusM
  • 32Viktor EkblomF
  • 22T. SanaF
Substitutes
  • 19A. AndreassonD
  • 3J. AzulayD
  • 29Marlon EbietomereD
  • 17W. HofvanderF
  • 21W. KenndalM
  • 11D. ObouF
  • 14D. PaulsonM
  • 34A. RahmG
  • 9L. AnderssonF
Coach: A. Holmberg
Mjallby AIF 5-3-2
  • 35A. LundinG
  • 25M. NielsenD
  • 33T. MiettinenD
  • 4A. NorénD
  • 24T. PetterssonD
  • 14Villiam GranathD
  • 22J. GustavssonM
  • 5Abdullah IqbalM
  • 7V. GustafsonM
  • 10J. KjærF
  • 18J. BergströmF
Substitutes
  • 39R. LeanderssonM
  • 6M. EnggårdM
  • 1S. HansenG
  • 26I. HoffmannD
  • 29Olle LindbergM
  • 23Á. SamuelsenF
  • 2L. SvanbergD
  • 27L. TidstrandM
  • 9A. YoussefF
Coach: A. Brännström

Form going into Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF

Orgryte IS

Allsvenskan

  • D2-2away to Djurgardens IF24 October 2026
  • W4-2Gais18 October 2026

Mjallby AIF

Allsvenskan

  • L0-2Hammarby FF25 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Vasteras SK FK18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Orgryte IS2848163360-2720
12Mjallby AIF28610123043-1328

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF

  • 11 April 2026Mjallby AIF 0–2 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
  • 27 February 2026Orgryte IS 0–3 Mjallby AIFSvenska Cupen
  • 17 August 2019Orgryte IS 1–1 Mjallby AIFSuperettan
  • 4 May 2019Mjallby AIF 2–1 Orgryte ISSuperettan

Leading scorers: Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF

Orgryte IS

GoalsAssists

  • N. Christoffersson81

Mjallby AIF

GoalsAssists

  • J. Bergström100

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mjallby AIF won 2–1 at Orgryte IS. The model had leaned towards a win for Orgryte IS at 40% and given a win for Mjallby AIF 34%. The goals: Jacob Bergstrom 5' for Mjallby AIF, Mikael Dyrestam 18' for Orgryte IS, Tony Miettinen 49' for Mjallby AIF. On expected goals it finished 0.81–1.75.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Orgryte IS a 28.9% chance to finish in the bottom two: 15.7% after a win, 30.8% after a draw, 41.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.0%, 12.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Orgryte IS v Mjallby AIF has moved

First published on 15 Oct at 33% / 26% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 40% / 26% / 34%: the biggest move is Orgryte IS's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Orgryte IS win40%▲ +7
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Mjallby AIF win34%▼ −7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.