30 October 2026, 22:00 UTC

Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera Primera División prediction & result

Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Coquimbo
Referee: Franco Esteban Jimenez Lazo
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Coquimbo Unido 1-0 Union La Calera.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Coquimbo Unido, 25% draw, 20% Union La Calera — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Coquimbo Unido at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Coquimbo Unido96%Draw4%Union La Calera0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Luis Riveros
1'
•Sebastián Cabrera
20'
Sebastián Cabrera
22'
27'
Yerko Leiva
45'
🔁Yerko Leivaout: Brian Nicolás Ferreyra
45'
🔁Francisco Jose Pozzoout: Bayron Oyarzo
⚽Luis Riverosassist: Francisco Salinas
63'
64'
🔁Yonathan Andíaout: Vicente Lavín
64'
🔁Maximiliano Fernándezout: Joaquín Soto
70'
Brian Nicolás Ferreyra
🔁Guido Vadaláout: Elvis Hernandez
77'
🔁Cristian Zavalaout: Alejandro Camargo
77'
79'
🔁juan salomoniout: Matías Campos López
🔁Salvador Corderoout: Matías Andrés Zepeda Flores
86'

Match stats — Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera

41%Possession59%
10Shots12
5On target3
4Corners9
0.9xG1.22

Goals against chances

Coquimbo Unido1 from 0.90 xGabout what the chances were worth
Union La Calera0 from 1.22 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Coquimbo Unido 4-2-3-1
  • 13D. SánchezG
  • 17F. SalinasD
  • 2B. GazzoloD
  • 3M. FernándezD
  • 16J. CornejoD
  • 14S. CorderoM
  • 7S. GalaniM
  • 15C. ZavalaM
  • 10G. VadaláM
  • 28S. CabreraM
  • 27L. RiverosF
Substitutes
  • 8A. CamargoM
  • 30B. ChandíaF
  • 1G. FloresG
  • 4E. HernándezD
  • 12L. PrattoF
  • 18P. RodriguezM
  • 26L. SozaD
  • 23M. ZepedaM
  • 31Dixon PereiraF
Coach: Hernán Caputto
Union La Calera 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. AvellanedaG
  • 25C. DíazD
  • 15J. SalomoniD
  • 27D. GutiérrezD
  • 4C. GutiérrezD
  • 2Y. AndíaM
  • 8Y. LeivaM
  • 9F. PozzoM
  • 23R. PérezM
  • 30Maximiliano FernandezM
  • 11S. SáezF
Substitutes
  • 21Valentino TorrenteM
  • 29J. SotoM
  • 7B. OyarzoF
  • 32B. FerreyraF
  • 19M. CamposF
  • 22Benjamín AstudilloG
  • 13Pablo Esteban Valero CifuentesM
  • 3N. PalmaD
  • 6V. LavinD
Coach: J. Armijo

Form going into Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera

Coquimbo Unido

Primera División

  • L1-2away to Nublense25 October 2026
  • W5-2Colo Colo11 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Cobresal12 September 2026

Union La Calera

Primera División

  • W3-1Universidad Catolica25 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Concepción11 October 2026
  • W1-0Deportes Limache14 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Coquimbo Unido26115103935+438
16Union La Calera2766152443-1924

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera

  • 12 July 2026Coquimbo Unido 0–1 Union La CaleraCopa De La Liga
  • 8 July 2026Union La Calera 0–1 Coquimbo UnidoCopa De La Liga
  • 24 April 2026Union La Calera 1–2 Coquimbo UnidoPrimera División
  • 2 November 2025Coquimbo Unido 2–0 Union La CaleraPrimera División
  • 2 July 2025Union La Calera 1–4 Coquimbo UnidoCopa Chile
  • 8 June 2025Coquimbo Unido 2–1 Union La CaleraCopa Chile

Leading scorers: Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera

Coquimbo Unido

GoalsAssists

  • N. Johansen90

Union La Calera

GoalsAssists

  • S. Sáez91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Coquimbo Unido beat Union La Calera 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Coquimbo Unido at 55%. The goal: Luis Riveros 63' for Coquimbo Unido. Sent off: Sebastián Cabrera (Coquimbo Unido) 22'. On expected goals it finished 0.90–1.22.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Coquimbo Unido a 8.9% chance to finish in the top four: 12.1% after a win, 3.8% after a draw, 1.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.1%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

For Union La Calera the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 98.7% going in: 96.2% after a win, 99.0% after a draw, 99.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.5%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Coquimbo Unido v Union La Calera has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 59% / 24% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 55% / 25% / 20%: the biggest move is Coquimbo Unido's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Coquimbo Unido win55%▼ −4
  2. Draw25%▲ +1
  3. Union La Calera win20%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.