29 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Kalmar FF vs Gais Allsvenskan prediction & result

Guldfågeln Arena, Kalmar
Referee: Fredrik Klitte
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Kalmar FF 0-1 Gais.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Kalmar FF, 29% draw, 47% Gais — fair odds of 4.17, 3.45 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gais at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kalmar FF0%Draw3%Gais97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
August Wangberg
🔁Noah Shamounout: Kasper Paananen
62'
63'
Filip Beckman
64'
🔁Robin Wendin Thomassonout: Rasmus Niklasson Petrovic
64'
🔁Mohamed·Bawaout: Simon Jørgensen
74'
🔁Samuel Salterout: Nikola·Vasic
74'
🔁Melvin Anderssonout: Oscar Pettersson
🔁vilmer tyrenout: Malcolm Stolt
77'
🔁Charles Sagoe Jrout: Sivert Overby
77'
Malcolm Stolt
80'
82'
🔁Henry Sletsjoeout: Gustav Lundgren
🔁Robert Gojaniout: Tobias Lauritsen
82'
84'
⚽Nikola·Vasicassist: Simon Jørgensen
85'
Nikola·Vasic

Match stats — Kalmar FF vs Gais

55%Possession45%
10Shots11
4On target4
6Corners5
0.6xG0.56

Goals against chances

Kalmar FF0 from 0.60 xGless than the chances were worth
Gais1 from 0.56 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kalmar FF 4-4-2
  • 1S. BrolinG
  • 26M. YlitolvaD
  • 39L. SætraD
  • 4J. LöfgrenD
  • 2V. LarssonD
  • 25N. ShamounM
  • 23R. GojaniM
  • 17C. GustafssonM
  • 24C. SagoeM
  • 13Amara CamaraF
  • 6V. TyrenF
Substitutes
  • 20A. AlmqvistD
  • 19E. DallF
  • 70E. NnamaniF
  • 30J. KindbergG
  • 22T. LauritsenM
  • 3S. ØverbyD
  • 27F. BjorklundD
  • 11K. PaananenF
  • 9M. StoltF
Coach: T. Koskela
Gais 4-3-3
  • 33A. HermansenG
  • 6A. WängbergD
  • 4O. ÅgrenD
  • 24F. BeckmanD
  • 5R. ThomassonD
  • 27M. BawaM
  • 12R. FrejM
  • 10H. SletsjøeM
  • 16M. AnderssonF
  • 20S. SalterF
  • 2M. de BrienneF
Substitutes
  • 22A. CardaklijaD
  • 1M. KrasniqiG
  • 25Jonas LindbergM
  • 9G. LundgrenM
  • 11R. NiklassonF
  • 32O. PetterssonF
  • 21N. VasićF
  • 14S. JørgensenF
  • 28L. HedlundF
Coach: F. Holmberg

Form going into Kalmar FF vs Gais

Kalmar FF

Allsvenskan

  • L0-3IF Brommapojkarna24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Degerfors IF19 October 2026

Gais

Allsvenskan

  • D1-1IFK Goteborg25 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Orgryte IS18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Kalmar FF2875162442-1826
9Gais28117103628+840

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kalmar FF vs Gais

  • 30 May 2026Gais 3–0 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
  • 31 August 2024Gais 1–1 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
  • 25 April 2024Kalmar FF 2–3 GaisAllsvenskan

The result against the call

Gais won 1–0 at Kalmar FF. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Gais at 47%. The goal: Nikola·Vasic 84' for Gais. On expected goals it finished 0.60–0.56.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kalmar FF a 10.7% chance to finish in the bottom two: 3.1% after a win, 8.4% after a draw, 14.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.8%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Kalmar FF v Gais has moved

First published on 15 Oct at 23% / 31% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 24% / 29% / 47%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Kalmar FF win24%▲ +1
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Gais win47%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.