Deportivo Pereira
vs
America de Cali
Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Deportivo Pereira 0-2 America de Cali.
Before kick-off the model made it 22% Deportivo Pereira, 29% draw, 49% America de Cali — fair odds of 4.55, 3.45 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Deportivo Pereira 0.79, America de Cali 1.44.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Other predictions for 15 Nov
Model insights: Deportivo Pereira vs America de Cali
Has the model earned this number?
America de Cali at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportivo Pereira vs America de Cali
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Yimy GómezG
- 20Jordy MonroyD
- 2Sebastián UrreaD
- 6Danilo OrtizD
- 25Fabio DelgadoD
- 21Walmer PachecoM
- 5Jorge BermúdezM
- 7Anderson PlataM
- 8Felipe MosqueraM
- 24Miguel PalaciosM
- 11Jhon LargachaF
- 13Yuber QuiñonesF
- 19Miguel AguirreM
- 16Eber MorenoD
- 27Juan MoralesF
- 88Brayam CastañedaM
- 12Juan BetancourthG
- 23Tobias BovoneD
- 17Richard RenteríaD
- 37Luis MorenoM
- 12Juan MontoyaG
- 24Cristian TovarD
- 2Marlon TorresD
- 22Nicolás HernándezD
- 13Mateo Castillo MárquezD
- 5Josen EscobarM
- 77Edson TortoleroM
- 15Rafael CarrascalM
- 6José CavadiaM
- 88Tilman PalaciosM
- 21Tomás ÁngelF
- 18Yani QuinteroM
- 7Jhon MurilloF
- 31Juan AponzáM
- 20Adrián RamosF
- 30Omar BertelD
- 37Alejandro BenítezG
- 44Brayan CórdobaD
- 36Jhordy CamachoF
- 35Samuel GranjaF
Form going into Deportivo Pereira vs America de Cali
Deportivo Pereira
Primera A
- L3-4away to Atletico Nacional7 November 2026
- L1-3Deportes Tolima3 November 2026
- W1-0Jaguares30 October 2026
- D1-1away to Once Caldas25 October 2026
America de Cali
Primera A
- D0-0Deportivo Cali8 November 2026
- D0-0away to Millonarios5 November 2026
- W2-1Fortaleza FC29 October 2026
- W3-1Cucuta24 October 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Pereira scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Deportivo Pereira failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Deportivo Pereira conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- America de Cali went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 17 |
| 2 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 15 | +16 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Pereira vs America de Cali
- 9 September 2026America de Cali 4–1 Deportivo PereiraCopa Colombia
- 3 May 2026America de Cali 1–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 14 August 2025Deportivo Pereira 2–1 America de CaliPrimera A
- 2 March 2025America de Cali 2–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 15 September 2024America de Cali 1–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 2 March 2024Deportivo Pereira 2–0 America de CaliPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Pereira and America de Cali
Deportivo Pereira
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
America de Cali
GoalsAssists
- Y. Guzmán206
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
America de Cali won 2–0 at Deportivo Pereira. The goals: Tomás Ángel (penalty) 27' for America de Cali, Edson Tortolero 60' for America de Cali. Sent off: Felipe Mosquera (Deportivo Pereira) 47'. On expected goals it finished 0.33–1.65.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives America de Cali the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Deportivo Pereira against 1.44 for America de Cali. Deportivo Pereira's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.03 for America de Cali.
How the model reaches 49% for America de Cali to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for America de Cali to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, Deportivo Pereira's ratings add 10 points and America de Cali's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage27%−8
- Deportivo Pereira's ratings37%+10
- America de Cali's ratings49%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.