Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Leon 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Leon, 28% draw, 41% Guadalajara Chivas — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Guadalajara Chivas at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Ó. GarcíaG
- 7I. MorenoD
- 14J. RomañaD
- 3Juan José Guevara PossuD
- 5S. VegasD
- 20R. EcheverríaM
- 29J. RodríguezM
- 6F. BeltránM
- 13D. ArcilaM
- 27D. CambindoF
- 19J. AlvaradoF
- 25P. BellónD
- 4B. ColulaD
- 16J. CortizoM
- 8J. DomínguezM
- 11I. DíazF
- 247I. EspinosaM
- 18E. GuerraM
- 203J. LaraM
- 181Irving MartínezG
- 1J. RangelG
- 23D. AguirreD
- 3D. CampilloD
- 7L. RomoD
- 37R. LedezmaM
- 28R. GonzálezM
- 6O. GoveaM
- 5B. GonzálezM
- 25R. AlvaradoM
- 10E. ÁlvarezM
- 30Santiago SandovalF
- 14H. CamberosM
- 33J. CarrilloM
- 19K. CastañedaM
- 2J. CastilloD
- 11B. GutiérrezM
- 24M. GómezD
- 17R. MarínF
- 16L. ReyD
- 9Á. SepúlvedaF
Form going into Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas
Leon
Liga MX
- L1-2away to Cruz Azul2 November 2026
- D1-1Toluca24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Tigres UANL21 October 2026
- L3-5Club America18 October 2026
Guadalajara Chivas
Liga MX
- W4-2Atlante FC1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Monterrey25 October 2026
- W1-0Necaxa21 October 2026
- D1-1Tigres UANL17 October 2026
What these results say
- Leon scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Leon failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Leon conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Guadalajara Chivas went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Guadalajara Chivas scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Guadalajara Chivas won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 23 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 26 | 15 | +11 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas
- 19 March 2026Guadalajara Chivas 5–0 LeonLiga MX
- 20 July 2025Leon 1–0 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 29 January 2025Leon 2–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 19 September 2024Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 LeonLiga MX
- 9 March 2024Guadalajara Chivas 1–2 LeonLiga MX
- 9 September 2023Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 LeonFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Leon and Guadalajara Chivas
Leon
GoalsAssists
- J. Alvarado61
Guadalajara Chivas
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Leon and Guadalajara Chivas drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Guadalajara Chivas at 41% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ricardo Marín 69' for Guadalajara Chivas, Paul Bellón 87' for Leon. Sent off: Jose Rodriguez (Leon) 53'. On expected goals it finished 0.40–1.65.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Leon a 35.0% chance to finish in the top eight: 65.9% after a win, 32.4% after a draw, 15.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 32.4%, 2.6 points lower than before the match.
For Guadalajara Chivas the question was the chance to finish top of the Apertura, 44.3% going in: 63.9% after a win, 31.6% after a draw, 24.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 31.6%, 12.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.