Club Queretaro vs Puebla Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club Queretaro 0-2 Puebla.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Club Queretaro, 28% draw, 24% Puebla — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Club Queretaro at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club Queretaro vs Puebla
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25G. AllisonG
- 24B. DuarteD
- 13D. ReyesD
- 2L. AbasciaD
- 27D. ParraD
- 4Carlo AdrianoM
- 5S. HomenchenkoM
- 17D. MuñozM
- 11M. CoronelM
- 7Iker BenitoM
- 9A. ÁvilaF
- 1J. HernándezG
- 16E. GiménezM
- 28J. ArellanoM
- 20Álex AlcaláM
- 29W. MadridM
- 8B. ParraM
- 26E. PérezF
- 23J. RoblesM
- 15C. VillanuevaD
- 28R. GutiérrezG
- 12I. MorenoD
- 5F. AlmadaD
- 4J. VargasD
- 15Ó. VillaD
- 24A. OrganistaM
- 14E. ArmentaM
- 26K. VelascoM
- 10M. TomásM
- 8O. MorenoM
- 9L. HernándezF
- 7F. MonárrezD
- 19I. Maestro PuchF
- 2Á. LeyvaD
- 27B. GarnicaF
- 22C. BaltazarM
- 34Lucas CamiloM
- 29E. MustreF
- 20J. PachucaD
- 16A. RamírezM
Form going into Club Queretaro vs Puebla
Club Queretaro
Liga MX
- L1-3away to FC Juarez31 October 2026
- L1-3Cruz Azul26 October 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico San Luis21 October 2026
Puebla
Liga MX
- L1-2Pumas UNAM31 October 2026
- L3-4away to Atlas25 October 2026
- L1-4Monterrey22 October 2026
- D0-0away to Club Tijuana17 October 2026
What these results say
- Puebla did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Puebla scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Puebla conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 20 |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Queretaro vs Puebla
- 25 April 2026Puebla 1–2 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 4 October 2025Club Queretaro 3–1 PueblaLiga MX
- 2 March 2025Club Queretaro 2–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 14 September 2024Puebla 2–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 24 February 2024Puebla 0–2 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 17 September 2023Club Queretaro 1–1 PueblaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club Queretaro and Puebla
Club Queretaro
GoalsAssists
- A. Ávila60
Puebla
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Puebla won 2–0 at Club Queretaro. The model had leaned towards a win for Club Queretaro at 48% and given a win for Puebla 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kevin Velasco 9' for Puebla, Omar Moreno 36' for Puebla. On expected goals it finished 1.49–1.34.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Club Queretaro a 56.7% chance to finish in the top eight: 77.1% after a win, 37.1% after a draw, 28.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.9%, 27.8 points lower than before the match.
For Puebla the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 3.7% going in: 0.0% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 6.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 3.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Club Queretaro v Puebla has moved
First published on 26 Oct at 50% / 27% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 48% / 28% / 24%: the biggest move is Club Queretaro's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Club Queretaro win48%▼ −2
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Puebla win24%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.