NAC Breda
vs
Emmen
Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: NAC Breda 4-2 Emmen.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% NAC Breda, 24% draw, 20% Emmen — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: NAC Breda 2.09, Emmen 1.04.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Model insights: NAC Breda vs Emmen
Has the model earned this number?
NAC Breda at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NAC Breda vs Emmen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. VerripsG
- 2B. LucassenD
- 4L. GreimlD
- 22R. HillenD
- 12J. Van den BerghD
- 8F. Oldrup JensenM
- 10M. NassohM
- 6M. BalardM
- 78J. Van HeckeF
- 9M. SoumanoF
- 14K. SowahF
- 23R. KortsmitG
- 33E. IkpiaF
- 19P. GladonF
- 5J. CandelariaD
- 17M. BouchouariD
- 31K. LamprouG
- 34I. NazihM
- 11G. MisehouyM
- 26P. ReulenF
- 1S. KarssiesG
- 24L. EverinkD
- 25R. KongoloD
- 2J. MukehD
- 17B. Van HoveD
- 21A. HojabrpourM
- 7T. RheinM
- 22M. BreijM
- 10Mustafa AbdullatifM
- 40S. VeldhuisM
- 9J. CooperF
- 4C. ØstergaardD
- 14Stan van ManenF
- 33K. RoosG
- 12F. QuispelF
- 38Kevin NorderG
- 23D. LambersF
- 27J. HuijzerM
- 8L. DenkM
- 18V. CarusD
Form going into NAC Breda vs Emmen
NAC Breda
Eerste Divisie
- D0-0away to Dordrecht6 November 2026
- W2-0away to Jong PSV U212 November 2026
- D1-1Heracles23 October 2026
- W2-0away to Helmond Sport16 October 2026
Emmen
Eerste Divisie
- L0-2MVV8 November 2026
- L0-5Den Bosch1 November 2026
- W2-0away to Vitesse23 October 2026
- W2-1Almere City FC17 October 2026
What these results say
- NAC Breda went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for NAC Breda had two goals or fewer.
- NAC Breda scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Emmen conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | NAC Breda | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 28 |
| 6 | Emmen | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NAC Breda vs Emmen
- 25 May 2024Emmen 0–3 NAC BredaEredivisie
- 21 May 2024NAC Breda 1–1 EmmenEredivisie
- 13 January 2024Emmen 2–3 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
- 22 September 2023NAC Breda 1–3 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 3 June 2023Emmen 2–0 NAC BredaEredivisie
- 31 May 2023NAC Breda 1–2 EmmenEredivisie
Leading scorers: NAC Breda and Emmen
NAC Breda
GoalsAssists
- C. Brym90
Emmen
GoalsAssists
- J. Cooper113
- F. Quispel72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NAC Breda a 0.9% chance of the title and Emmen 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave NAC Breda a 79.8% chance to finish in the top eight: 83.9% after a win, 77.5% after a draw, 73.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 83.9%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.
For Emmen the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 47.2% going in: 55.7% after a win, 46.5% after a draw, 43.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.7%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NAC Breda the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for NAC Breda against 1.04 for Emmen. NAC Breda's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.01 for Emmen.
How the model reaches 56% for NAC Breda to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for NAC Breda to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, NAC Breda's ratings add 5 points and Emmen's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- NAC Breda's ratings50%+5
- Emmen's ratings56%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.