Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Sfaxien Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1-0 CS Sfaxien.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer, 28% draw, 40% CS Sfaxien — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
CS Sfaxien at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Sfaxien
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Ligue 1
- D1-1away to Olympique Béja13 September 2026
- W1-0CS Hammam-Lif5 September 2026
CS Sfaxien
Ligue 1
- W2-0CA Bizertin20 September 2026
- D1-1away to US Ben Guerdane16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Tunisia Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 | CS Sfaxien | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer beat CS Sfaxien 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for CS Sfaxien at 40% and given a win for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: M. Omri 29' for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer.
How the call on Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer v CS Sfaxien has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 32% / 30% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 32% / 28% / 40%: the biggest move is CS Sfaxien's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer win32%=
- Draw28%▼ −2
- CS Sfaxien win40%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.