Columbus Crew vs Charlotte Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Columbus Crew 3-1 Charlotte.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Columbus Crew, 26% draw, 37% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Columbus Crew at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Columbus Crew vs Charlotte
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28P. SchulteG
- 31S. MoreiraD
- 25S. ZawadzkiD
- 18M. AmundsenD
- 23M. FarsiM
- 7D. ChambostM
- 16T. HabrouneM
- 21A. ZarouryM
- 10Brais MéndezF
- 77Josef MartínezF
- 8S. RodríguezF
- 11B. LennonD
- 20André GomesM
- 2M. HerreraD
- 33G. TapiaF
- 1N. HagenG
- 3E. BaillyD
- 17S. BangouraM
- 26L. GiacconeM
- 19J. ThiaréF
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 35Will ClearyD
- 22H. KesslerD
- 3T. ReamD
- 15H. ToffoloD
- 8A. WestwoodM
- 13B. BronicoM
- 11L. AbadaM
- 16Pep BielM
- 10A. Saint-MaximinM
- 9I. Toklomati GiornoF
- 17L. de la TorreM
- 28D. DianiM
- 21T. MillerG
- 4A. PrivettD
- 25Tyger SmallsF
- 23D. SchneggD
- 14N. ByrneD
- 44M. AgyemangD
- 37R. AlokoF
Form going into Columbus Crew vs Charlotte
Columbus Crew
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Orlando City SC10 October 2026
- W2-1Inter Miami27 September 2026
- W2-0away to CF Montreal19 September 2026
- L0-1New York Red Bulls12 September 2026
- L1-2away to DC United9 September 2026
Charlotte
All competitions we cover
- W3-2FC Dallas10 October 2026
- L0-1Chicago Fire26 September 2026
- W2-1away to DC United19 September 2026
- D3-3away to FC Cincinnati12 September 2026
- W2-1away to CF Montreal9 September 2026
What these results say
- Columbus Crew scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Columbus Crew conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Charlotte conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Charlotte scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Charlotte had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 14 | 5 | 15 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 47 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 66 | 51 | +15 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Columbus Crew vs Charlotte
- 15 August 2026Charlotte 3–1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 24 May 2025Charlotte 3–2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 3 May 2025Columbus Crew 4–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 17 July 2024Columbus Crew 1–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 23 March 2024Charlotte 2–0 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Columbus Crew and Charlotte
Columbus Crew
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 59 league goals as a side.
Charlotte
GoalsAssists
- I. Toklomati Giorno155
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Columbus Crew beat Charlotte 3–1. The goals: Idan Toklomati Jorno 17' for Charlotte, Brais Méndez 28' for Columbus Crew, Anass Zaroury 63' for Columbus Crew, Taha Habroune 65' for Columbus Crew. On expected goals it finished 2.85–0.91.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Columbus Crew a 41.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 26.1% after a win, 44.7% after a draw, 54.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.1%, 14.9 points lower than before the match.
For Charlotte the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 54.1% going in: 70.3% after a win, 49.9% after a draw, 42.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.2%, 11.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Columbus Crew v Charlotte has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 36% / 28% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 37% / 26% / 37%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- Columbus Crew win37%▲ +1
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Charlotte win37%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.