FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: FC Cincinnati 2-3 New England Revolution.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% FC Cincinnati, 23% draw, 34% New England Revolution — fair odds of 2.33, 4.35 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
FC Cincinnati at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13E. LouroG
- 24K. SmithD
- 6J. MalatiniD
- 15T. HadebeD
- 66E. EcheniqueM
- 27B. AnungaM
- 22G. ValenzuelaM
- 5O. NwobodoM
- 3T. MalaciaM
- 16T. BarlowF
- 9K. DenkeyF
- 99A. JabbariF
- 4N. HagglundD
- 11S. GidiM
- 10EvanderM
- 23D. DouděraM
- 18R. CelentanoG
- 20P. BuchaM
- 17K. Mboma DemF
- 29Bryan Josías Ramírez LeónD
- 30M. TurnerG
- 12I. FeingoldD
- 22E. KohlerD
- 66J. WynderD
- 23W. SandsD
- 8M. PolsterM
- 21B. RainesM
- 25P. MillerM
- 10Carles GilM
- 16D. GazdagM
- 99D. TurgemanF
- 14J. YueillM
- 15C. BakerD
- 4T. BeasonD
- 77D. FagundezM
- 27W. HarrisF
- 41L. LangoniF
- 33D. ParisianG
- 65J. SiqueiraM
- 7G. YowF
Form going into FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution
FC Cincinnati
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Atlanta United FC10 October 2026
- L1-3away to CF Montreal26 September 2026
- D2-2away to Houston Dynamo20 September 2026
- D3-3Charlotte12 September 2026
- L0-5away to Philadelphia Union9 September 2026
New England Revolution
All competitions we cover
- L0-3Seattle Sounders10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Real Salt Lake27 September 2026
- W4-2Orlando City SC19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chicago Fire13 September 2026
- W2-1away to New York City FC10 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Cincinnati conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Cincinnati had three goals or more.
- FC Cincinnati failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- New England Revolution conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for New England Revolution had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 67 | 75 | -8 | 46 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 34 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 55 | 47 | +8 | 58 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution
- 15 March 2026New England Revolution 6–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 23 January 2026New England Revolution 1–1 FC CincinnatiFriendlies Clubs
- 14 June 2025New England Revolution 0–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 5 April 2025FC Cincinnati 1–0 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 22 June 2024FC Cincinnati 1–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: FC Cincinnati and New England Revolution
FC Cincinnati
GoalsAssists
- K. Denkey173
New England Revolution
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 55 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
New England Revolution won 3–2 at FC Cincinnati. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Cincinnati at 43% and given a win for New England Revolution 34%. The goals: Tom Barlow 13' for FC Cincinnati, Dor Turgeman 21' for New England Revolution, Joshua Wynder 43' for New England Revolution, Dor Turgeman 51' for New England Revolution, Kevin Denkey 67' for FC Cincinnati. On expected goals it finished 1.96–1.69.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Cincinnati a 2.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 2.0% after a draw, 3.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.7%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.
For New England Revolution the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 38.8% going in: 53.8% after a win, 37.8% after a draw, 27.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.8%, 15 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 37% / 25% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 43% / 23% / 34%: the biggest move is FC Cincinnati's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- FC Cincinnati win43%▲ +6
- Draw23%▼ −2
- New England Revolution win34%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.