Inter Miami vs New York City FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Inter Miami 2-0 New York City FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Inter Miami, 22% draw, 21% New York City FC — fair odds of 1.75, 4.55 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Inter Miami at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Inter Miami vs New York City FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 97D. St. ClairG
- 2G. LujánD
- 5CasemiroD
- 16MicaelD
- 3ReguilónD
- 7R. De PaulM
- 22D. AyalaM
- 80M. GalarzaM
- 10L. MessiF
- 9L. SuárezF
- 19G. BerterameF
- 37M. FalcónD
- 17I. FrayD
- 56Daniel PinterF
- 34R. Ríos NovoG
- 11Riquelme FillipiF
- 8T. SegoviaM
- 88A. ShawM
- 15F. CaicedoD
- 20S. MoralesM
- 49M. FreeseG
- 24T. GrayD
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 6J. SandsD
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 8A. PereaM
- 26A. OjedaM
- 7N. Fernández MercauM
- 9B. TraoréM
- 16A. MartínezF
- 88M. JonesF
- 17H. WolfF
- 3M. MiazgaD
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 20Luighi HanriF
Form going into Inter Miami vs New York City FC
Inter Miami
All competitions we cover
- W4-0DC United10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Columbus Crew27 September 2026
- D2-2San Diego20 September 2026
- D2-2Nashville SC12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Chicago Fire10 September 2026
New York City FC
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Chicago Fire10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Atlanta United FC26 September 2026
- L0-1New York Red Bulls18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Real Salt Lake13 September 2026
- L1-2New England Revolution10 September 2026
What these results say
- Inter Miami scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York City FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York City FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York City FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter Miami | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 80 | 59 | +21 | 60 |
| 11 | New York City FC | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 45 | +4 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter Miami vs New York City FC
- 22 March 2026New York City FC 2–3 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 29 November 2025Inter Miami 5–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 24 September 2025New York City FC 0–4 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 23 February 2025Inter Miami 2–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 21 September 2024New York City FC 1–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Inter Miami and New York City FC
Inter Miami
GoalsAssists
- L. Messi2613
- L. Suárez166
New York City FC
GoalsAssists
- N. Fernández Mercau166
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Inter Miami beat New York City FC 2–0. The model had made a win for Inter Miami its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Germán Berterame 20' for Inter Miami, Rodrigo De Paul 45+5' for Inter Miami. On expected goals it finished 2.31–1.53.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Inter Miami a 96.0% chance to finish in the top four: 98.4% after a win, 94.2% after a draw, 91.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 98.4%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.
For New York City FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.8% going in: under 1% after a win, 4.7% after a draw, 7.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.2%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Inter Miami v New York City FC has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 49% / 25% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 57% / 22% / 21%: the biggest move is Inter Miami's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- Inter Miami win57%▲ +8
- Draw22%▼ −3
- New York City FC win21%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.