Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Toronto FC 3-3 Orlando City SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Toronto FC, 24% draw, 33% Orlando City SC — fair odds of 2.33, 4.17 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Toronto FC at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. GavranG
- 22R. LaryeaD
- 12Z. MonlouisD
- 13B. KuscevicD
- 3Matheus PereiraD
- 7T. CorbeanuM
- 14Alonso CoelloM
- 6N. DorschM
- 20D. SallóiM
- 9J. SargentF
- 90L. MorganF
- 17Emilio Aristizábal ChavarriagaF
- 96R. ChukwuD
- 71M. CimermancicM
- 11D. EtienneF
- 19K. FranklinD
- 38J. GilmanD
- 10D. MihailovićM
- 27A. PiedrahitaF
- 23W. YarbroughG
- 71M. CrépeauG
- 20E. AtuestaD
- 4D. BrekaloD
- 57IagoD
- 27Vinícius NogueiraD
- 77I. AnguloM
- 5Luis OtávioM
- 16W. CartagenaM
- 23Harvey SarajianM
- 7A. GriezmannF
- 10M. OjedaF
- 21N. MillerD
- 8B. OjedaM
- 12Javier OteroG
- 44Bernardo Rhein GoncalvesF
- 19Z. TaifiM
- 11TiagoF
- 35Joran GerbetM
- 9D. DikeF
- 3Adrián MarínD
Form going into Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC
Toronto FC
All competitions we cover
- W2-1CF Montreal10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Nashville SC27 September 2026
- L1-3away to St. Louis City20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Orlando City SC12 September 2026
- W2-1Nashville SC9 September 2026
Orlando City SC
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Columbus Crew10 October 2026
- L2-4away to Philadelphia Union26 September 2026
- L2-4away to New England Revolution19 September 2026
- W3-0Toronto FC12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Atlanta United FC9 September 2026
What these results say
- Toronto FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Toronto FC had three goals or more.
- Orlando City SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Orlando City SC had three goals or more.
- Orlando City SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Toronto FC | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 52 | 67 | -15 | 39 |
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 63 | 78 | -15 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC
- 12 September 2026Orlando City SC 3–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 18 October 2025Toronto FC 4–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 2 March 2025Orlando City SC 4–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 3 July 2024Toronto FC 1–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 27 April 2024Orlando City SC 1–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Toronto FC and Orlando City SC
Toronto FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 52 league goals as a side.
Orlando City SC
GoalsAssists
- M. Ojeda164
- A. Griezmann147
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Toronto FC and Orlando City SC drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Toronto FC at 43% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Lewis Morgan 26' for Toronto FC, Martin Ojeda (penalty) 45+1' for Orlando City SC, Theo Corbeanu 49' for Toronto FC, Antoine Griezmann 76' for Orlando City SC, Daryl Dike 83' for Orlando City SC, Matheus Pereira de Souza 89' for Toronto FC. On expected goals it finished 2.84–2.30.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Toronto FC a 23.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.7% after a win, 26.4% after a draw, 33.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 26.4%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Toronto FC v Orlando City SC has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 41% / 26% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 43% / 24% / 33%: the biggest move is Toronto FC's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Toronto FC win43%▲ +2
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Orlando City SC win33%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.