CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: CF Montreal 0-3 Atlanta United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% CF Montreal, 28% draw, 33% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
CF Montreal at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. BrezaG
- 27D. BugajD
- 2J. NealD
- 5B. CraigD
- 13L. PetrassoD
- 8M. LongstaffM
- 7D. PereiraM
- 16W. CarmonaM
- 10A. SánchezM
- 23N. StreitM
- 14D. RíosF
- 22V. LoturiM
- 21F. HerbersF
- 41S. KeitaG
- 24E. MoralesD
- 6S. PietteM
- 18H. SynchukM
- 26I. LosenkoM
- 29O. EscobarF
- 25F. AmayaM
- 1L. HoyosG
- 47Matthew EdwardsD
- 27P. DíazD
- 6J. AlonsoD
- 3E. BáezD
- 14M. AmaroM
- 59A. MiranchukM
- 35A. FortuneM
- 11G. GaloppoM
- 10M. AlmirónM
- 36B. EmboloF
- 22F. PicaultF
- 48C. SanchezM
- 19Sergio SantosF
- 4E. MihajD
- 42Jayden HibbertG
- 16Adrian GillM
- 8T. MuyumbaM
- 7S. AlzateM
- 30C. TogashiF
Form going into CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC
CF Montreal
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Toronto FC10 October 2026
- W3-1FC Cincinnati26 September 2026
- L0-2Columbus Crew19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids13 September 2026
- L1-2Charlotte9 September 2026
Atlanta United FC
All competitions we cover
- L1-3FC Cincinnati10 October 2026
- D2-2New York City FC26 September 2026
- W1-0away to Portland Timbers20 September 2026
- D0-0away to DC United12 September 2026
- L2-3Orlando City SC9 September 2026
What these results say
- CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlanta United FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlanta United FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CF Montreal | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 26 |
| 13 | Atlanta United FC | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 43 | 60 | -17 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC
- 2 May 2026Atlanta United FC 3–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 9 August 2025CF Montreal 1–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 23 February 2025Atlanta United FC 3–2 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 22 October 2024CF Montreal 2–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 2 October 2024Atlanta United FC 1–2 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: CF Montreal and Atlanta United FC
CF Montreal
GoalsAssists
- P. Owusu156
Atlanta United FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atlanta United FC won 3–0 at CF Montreal. The model had leaned towards a win for CF Montreal at 39% and given a win for Atlanta United FC 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Miguel Almirón 22' for Atlanta United FC, Giuliano Galoppo 41' for Atlanta United FC, Breel Embolo 60' for Atlanta United FC. On expected goals it finished 0.67–2.14.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atlanta United FC a 81.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 69.9% after a win, 85.4% after a draw, 89.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.9%, 11.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 36% / 30% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 28% / 33%: the biggest move is CF Montreal's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- CF Montreal win39%▲ +3
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Atlanta United FC win33%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.