Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Columbus Crew 0-1 New York Red Bulls.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Columbus Crew, 30% draw, 28% New York Red Bulls — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Columbus Crew at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28P. SchulteG
- 31S. MoreiraD
- 25S. ZawadzkiD
- 18M. AmundsenD
- 26L. GiacconeM
- 50T. KarumanchiM
- 20A. GomesM
- 11B. LennonM
- 10B. MendezF
- 33G. TapiaF
- 8S. RodriguezF
- 24E. BushG
- 1N. HagenG
- 3E. BaillyD
- 12C. RuvalcabaD
- 16T. HabrouneM
- 7D. ChambostM
- 14A. SejdicM
- 77J. MartinezF
- 19J. ThiareF
- 34E. HorvathG
- 12D. NealisD
- 26T. ParkerD
- 14J. BazanD
- 56M. Dos SantosD
- 48R. DonkorM
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 37M. SofoM
- 17C. HarperF
- 16J. HallF
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 6R. VoloderD
- 59D. PadelfordD
- 8D. RuizM
- 60S. KoneM
- 13E. M. Choupo-MotingF
- 7C. CowellF
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 92D. NelichF
Form going into Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls
Columbus Crew
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to DC United9 September 2026
- W3-0Colorado Rapids5 September 2026
- L1-3New England Revolution30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Nashville SC23 August 2026
- L1-2CF Montreal19 August 2026
New York Red Bulls
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Los Angeles FC10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Seattle Sounders6 September 2026
- L1-3Philadelphia Union29 August 2026
- D1-1Chicago Fire22 August 2026
- L0-1Nashville SC19 August 2026
What these results say
- Columbus Crew scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Columbus Crew had three goals or more.
- Columbus Crew failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls did not win any of these 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for New York Red Bulls had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 14 | 5 | 15 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 47 |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 48 | 62 | -14 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls
- 13 May 2026New York Red Bulls 3–2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 18 October 2025Columbus Crew 3–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 30 August 2025New York Red Bulls 0–0 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 3 November 2024New York Red Bulls 2–2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 29 October 2024Columbus Crew 0–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
The result against the call
New York Red Bulls won 1–0 at Columbus Crew. The model had leaned towards a win for Columbus Crew at 42% and given a win for New York Red Bulls 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: R. Donkor 89' for New York Red Bulls. On expected goals it finished 1.47–1.43.
How the call on Columbus Crew v New York Red Bulls has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 30% / 28%: the biggest move is New York Red Bulls's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Columbus Crew win42%▲ +4
- Draw30%▲ +1
- New York Red Bulls win28%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.