DC United vs Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: DC United 0-0 Atlanta United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% DC United, 27% draw, 30% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
DC United at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — DC United vs Atlanta United FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. JohnsonG
- 5S. HeftiD
- 3L. BartlettD
- 15K. RowlesD
- 6K. KurokawaD
- 2K. NonoM
- 21A. DozzellM
- 23B. ServaniaM
- 22N. OrdazM
- 11L. MunteanuF
- 9T. BariboF
- 26A. BonoG
- 13S. NealisD
- 27N. MarkovicD
- 77H. KijimaM
- 4M. PeltolaD
- 25J. HopkinsM
- 8J. StroudM
- 1L. HoyosG
- 55T. JacobD
- 4E. MihajD
- 6J. AlonsoD
- 3E. BaezD
- 48C. SanchezM
- 14M. AmaroM
- 35A. FortuneM
- 59A. MiranchukF
- 36B. EmboloF
- 10M. AlmironF
- 42J. HibbertG
- 27P. DiazD
- 47M. EdwardsD
- 28W. ReillyM
- 16A. GillM
- 8T. MuyumbaM
- 20L. BrennanM
- 22F. PicaultF
- 19Sergio SantosF
Form going into DC United vs Atlanta United FC
DC United
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Columbus Crew9 September 2026
- D0-0Los Angeles FC29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Charlotte22 August 2026
- L0-3New England Revolution19 August 2026
- D1-1away to CF Montreal15 August 2026
Atlanta United FC
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Orlando City SC9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami5 September 2026
- L0-2Charlotte29 August 2026
- W2-1Sporting Kansas City23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Minnesota United FC20 August 2026
What these results say
- DC United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- DC United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlanta United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlanta United FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atlanta United FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | DC United | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 33 |
| 13 | Atlanta United FC | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 43 | 60 | -17 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: DC United vs Atlanta United FC
- 21 March 2026Atlanta United FC 0–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 18 October 2025Atlanta United FC 1–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 5 July 2025DC United 0–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 27 July 2024Atlanta United FC 3–3 DC UnitedLeagues Cup
- 19 June 2024DC United 0–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 11 May 2024Atlanta United FC 2–3 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: DC United and Atlanta United FC
DC United
GoalsAssists
- T. Baribo161
Atlanta United FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
DC United and Atlanta United FC drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for DC United at 43% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.21–1.42.
How the call on DC United v Atlanta United FC has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 27% / 30%: the biggest move is DC United's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- DC United win43%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Atlanta United FC win30%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.