Coritiba vs Cruzeiro Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Coritiba 0-1 Cruzeiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Coritiba, 25% draw, 47% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Cruzeiro at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Coritiba vs Cruzeiro
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Pedro MoriscoG
- 2TingaD
- 55Jacy MaranhãoD
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 19Sebastian GomezM
- 11Lucas RonierM
- 10JosuéM
- 77Breno LopesM
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 50Vitor Gonçalves TissiM
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 99Rodrigo RodriguesF
- 17Brian OcampoF
- 20KenoF
- 22Pedro RangelG
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 3MaiconD
- 44João Pedro ChermontD
- 81Otávio CostaG
- 12William FurtadoD
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 34Jonathan JesusD
- 27Gabriel RojasD
- 29Lucas RomeroM
- 8GersonM
- 99Keny ArroyoM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 38Felipe MoraisM
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 70Kaique KenjiF
- 7Matheus HenriqueM
- 11MarquinhosF
- 9Bruno RodriguesF
- 25Lucas VillalbaD
- 51Vitor LamounierG
- 2Kauã MoraesD
- 43João MarceloD
- 57Rayan LelisF
Form going into Coritiba vs Cruzeiro
Coritiba
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to RB Bragantino26 July 2026
- L1-3Palmeiras22 July 2026
Cruzeiro
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Botafogo26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Internacional23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 60 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Cruzeiro
- 6 February 2026Cruzeiro 1–2 CoritibaSerie A
- 11 November 2023Coritiba 1–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 16 July 2023Cruzeiro 0–0 CoritibaSerie A
- 9 October 2021Coritiba 0–3 CruzeiroSerie B
- 6 July 2021Cruzeiro 0–0 CoritibaSerie B
Leading scorers: Coritiba and Cruzeiro
Coritiba
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Rocha91
- Breno Lopes81
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Kaio Jorge142
- Matheus Pereira97
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cruzeiro won 1–0 at Coritiba. The model had made a win for Cruzeiro its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Matheus Pereira 66' for Cruzeiro. On expected goals it finished 0.97–2.32.