Newcastle sit 12th in the Premier League on 5 points from 4 matches, having scored 7 and conceded 8. The model rates their attack at 1.02× the league average and their defence at 1.11× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better. Across their last 4 league matches they have 1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat, most recently losing to Leeds 1-4 away. That is 1.25 points a match, scoring 1.75 and conceding 2.00 per game across 1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat. That leaves them 7 points behind Arsenal at the top, in a table of 20. Among the 20 rated sides in the division that is the 11th-best attack and the 18th-best defence. They scored in 3 of those 4 and kept 0 clean sheets. Next they host Hull City in the Premier League on 19 September 2026, a match the model gives them 40%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 | Leeds | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 | Hull City | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 5 | Brighton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 7 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Brentford | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | Everton | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 | Nottingham Forest | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
| 17 | Tottenham | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
| 18 | Fulham | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 |
| 19 | Aston Villa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
| 20 | Coventry | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 0 |
Newcastle sit 12 of 20, as the table stands today. Every competition we cover.
Recent league form
- L1-4away to Leeds14 September 2026
- D2-2Bournemouth5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Tottenham29 August 2026
- D2-2Liverpool23 August 2026
Last 4 league matches, most recent first.
Next match: Newcastle vs Hull City
Newcastle host Hull City at St. James' Park, Newcastle on 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. The model makes it 40% Newcastle, 30% draw and 30% Hull City, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0. It projects 1.48 expected goals for Newcastle against 1.11. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Full preview and model analysis for Newcastle vs Hull City
Recent meetings with Hull City
- 27 July 2024Hull City 0–2 NewcastleFriendlies Clubs
- 29 November 2016Hull City 1–1 NewcastleLeague Cup
- 31 January 2015Hull City 0–3 NewcastlePremier League
- 20 September 2014Newcastle 2–2 Hull CityPremier League
- 1 March 2014Hull City 1–4 NewcastlePremier League
The last 5 meetings between the two, most recent first.