Crystal Palace vs Liverpool Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Crystal Palace 1-3 Liverpool.
Before kick-off the model made it 19% Crystal Palace, 23% draw, 58% Liverpool — fair odds of 5.26, 4.35 and 1.72.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Liverpool at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. HendersonG
- 26C. RichardsD
- 5A. DisasiD
- 8J. LermaD
- 30Óscar MinguezaM
- 20A. WhartonM
- 23Q. TimberM
- 3T. MitchellM
- 18D. KamadaM
- 10Yeremy PinoM
- 22J. Strand LarsenF
- 9E. NketiahF
- 19W. HughesM
- 24D. OsorioM
- 11D. McNeilF
- 44W. BenítezG
- 6J. CanvotD
- 33B. ChilwellD
- 25A. KhalailiD
- 28C. DoucouréM
- 1Alisson BeckerG
- 33R. AraújoD
- 5J. JacquetD
- 4V. van DijkD
- 6M. KerkezD
- 8D. SzoboszlaiM
- 10A. Mac AllisterM
- 18C. GakpoM
- 7F. WirtzM
- 29B. BarcolaM
- 9A. IsakF
- 2J. GomezD
- 21K. TsimikasD
- 3W. EndoM
- 23Víctor MuñozF
- 42T. NyoniM
- 53J. McConnellM
- 67L. KoumasF
- 73R. NgumohaF
- 25G. MamardashviliG
Form going into Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
Crystal Palace
Premier League
- L0-2away to Tottenham31 October 2026
- L0-2Newcastle25 October 2026
- L0-5away to Brighton18 October 2026
- W3-1Nottingham Forest11 October 2026
Liverpool
Premier League
- L0-1Arsenal1 November 2026
- W2-0Brighton25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Brentford17 October 2026
- L0-3Manchester City11 October 2026
What these results say
- Crystal Palace conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Crystal Palace failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Crystal Palace failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Liverpool conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 7 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
- 25 April 2026Liverpool 3–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 29 October 2025Liverpool 0–3 Crystal PalaceLeague Cup
- 27 September 2025Crystal Palace 2–1 LiverpoolPremier League
- 10 August 2025Crystal Palace 2–2 LiverpoolCommunity Shield
- 25 May 2025Liverpool 1–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 5 October 2024Crystal Palace 0–1 LiverpoolPremier League
Leading scorers: Crystal Palace and Liverpool
Crystal Palace
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Liverpool
GoalsAssists
- A. Isak70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Liverpool won 3–1 at Crystal Palace. The model had made a win for Liverpool its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Alexis Mac Allister 40' for Liverpool, Florian Wirtz 54' for Liverpool, Alexander Isak 89' for Liverpool, Eddie Nketiah (penalty) 90+5' for Crystal Palace. On expected goals it finished 2.47–2.71.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Crystal Palace a 74.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 66.3% after a win, 74.1% after a draw, 76.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 76.0%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.
For Liverpool the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 50.3% going in: 53.1% after a win, 46.8% after a draw, 43.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.1%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Crystal Palace v Liverpool has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 24% / 24% / 52% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 19% / 23% / 58%: the biggest move is Liverpool's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Crystal Palace win19%▼ −5
- Draw23%▼ −1
- Liverpool win58%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.