Brighton vs Brentford Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Brighton 2-0 Brentford.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Brighton, 25% draw, 23% Brentford — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Brighton at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Brighton vs Brentford
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. VerbruggenG
- 20CostinhaD
- 44L. VuškovićD
- 5L. DunkD
- 21O. BoscagliD
- 13P. GroßM
- 14José María Andrés BaixauliM
- 25D. GómezM
- 26Y. AyariM
- 29M. De CuyperM
- 19C. KostoulasF
- 11Y. MintehF
- 35M. YalcouyéM
- 27M. WiefferM
- 8J. HinshelwoodM
- 30M. SvobodaD
- 23J. SteeleG
- 3J. HadjamD
- 24F. KadıoğluD
- 10G. RutterF
- 1C. KelleherG
- 33M. KayodeD
- 20K. AjerD
- 4S. van den BergD
- 2A. HickeyD
- 18M. SangaréM
- 27V. JaneltM
- 11D. OuattaraM
- 7K. SchadeM
- 23K. Lewis-PotterM
- 9ThiagoF
- 22N. CollinsD
- 25E. DioufD
- 44Jannik SchusterD
- 6Y. YarmolyukM
- 8M. JensenM
- 19J. AnthonyF
- 24M. DamsgaardM
- 13C. WilsonF
- 12H. ValdimarssonG
Form going into Brighton vs Brentford
Brighton
Premier League
- W1-0away to Manchester City31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Liverpool25 October 2026
- W5-0Crystal Palace18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Sunderland10 October 2026
Brentford
Premier League
- W2-0Nottingham Forest31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Hull City25 October 2026
- L1-2Liverpool17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Aston Villa10 October 2026
What these results say
- Brighton won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Brighton scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Brighton kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Brentford scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Brentford failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Brentford conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 7 | +19 | 22 |
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Brighton vs Brentford
- 21 February 2026Brentford 0–2 BrightonPremier League
- 22 November 2025Brighton 2–1 BrentfordPremier League
- 19 April 2025Brentford 4–2 BrightonPremier League
- 27 December 2024Brighton 0–0 BrentfordPremier League
- 3 April 2024Brentford 0–0 BrightonPremier League
- 6 December 2023Brighton 2–1 BrentfordPremier League
Leading scorers: Brighton and Brentford
Brighton
GoalsAssists
- P. Groß44
- C. Kostoulas32
Brentford
GoalsAssists
- K. Schade30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Brighton beat Brentford 2–0. The model had made a win for Brighton its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Diego Gomez 15' for Brighton, Pascal Groß (penalty) 42' for Brighton. Sent off: Igor Thiago (Brentford) 23'. On expected goals it finished 2.24–0.75.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Brighton a 83.0% chance to finish in the top four: 86.7% after a win, 81.6% after a draw, 77.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 86.7%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.
For Brentford the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 17.2% going in: 24.5% after a win, 15.7% after a draw, 13.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.9%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Brighton v Brentford has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 54% / 24% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 52% / 25% / 23%: the biggest move is Brighton's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Brighton win52%▼ −2
- Draw25%▲ +1
- Brentford win23%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.