Sunderland vs Chelsea Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Sunderland 1-0 Chelsea.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Sunderland, 25% draw, 46% Chelsea — fair odds of 3.45, 4.00 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Chelsea at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sunderland vs Chelsea
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22R. RoefsG
- 12T. MeunierD
- 20N. MukieleD
- 13L. O'NienD
- 17ReinildoD
- 34G. XhakaM
- 27N. SadikiM
- 32T. HumeM
- 28E. Le FéeM
- 7C. TalbiM
- 9B. BrobbeyF
- 18W. IsidorF
- 11C. RiggM
- 39M. FofanaF
- 29Jules AhokaM
- 10N. AnguloF
- 6D. MethalieD
- 4K. DansoD
- 31M. EllborgG
- 57Timur TuterovF
- 39M. PendersG
- 2M. PalestraD
- 3W. FofanaD
- 6L. ColwillD
- 29Pep ChavarríaD
- 25M. CaicedoM
- 45R. LaviaM
- 14J. HendersonM
- 10C. PalmerM
- 17M. RogersM
- 7Pedro NetoF
- 28T. Sharman-LoweG
- 30A. AnselminoD
- 27M. GustoD
- 4V. BarcoM
- 23Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
- 41EstêvãoF
- 18D. WelbeckF
- 22E. EmeghaF
- 32M. Nicoll-JazuliM
Form going into Sunderland vs Chelsea
Sunderland
Premier League
- L1-3away to Coventry31 October 2026
- D0-0Leeds25 October 2026
- L0-2away to Bournemouth18 October 2026
- L0-2Brighton10 October 2026
Chelsea
Premier League
- W2-0Manchester United31 October 2026
- L0-2Tottenham24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Everton17 October 2026
- W5-1Bournemouth10 October 2026
What these results say
- Sunderland did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Sunderland failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sunderland conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Chelsea won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Chelsea scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Chelsea had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 8 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sunderland vs Chelsea
- 24 May 2026Sunderland 2–1 ChelseaPremier League
- 25 October 2025Chelsea 1–2 SunderlandPremier League
- 21 May 2017Chelsea 5–1 SunderlandPremier League
- 14 December 2016Sunderland 0–1 ChelseaPremier League
- 7 May 2016Sunderland 3–2 ChelseaPremier League
- 19 December 2015Chelsea 3–1 SunderlandPremier League
Leading scorers: Sunderland and Chelsea
Sunderland
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Chelsea
GoalsAssists
- João Pedro53
- M. Rogers51
- Pedro Neto31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sunderland beat Chelsea 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Chelsea at 46% and given a win for Sunderland 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Enzo Le Fée (penalty) 36' for Sunderland. On expected goals it finished 2.58–0.55.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sunderland a 54.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 46.8% after a win, 55.6% after a draw, 58.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 46.8%, 7.4 points lower than before the match.
For Chelsea the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 18.1% going in: 21.5% after a win, 15.5% after a draw, 12.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.9%, 5.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sunderland v Chelsea has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 32% / 25% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 29% / 25% / 46%: the biggest move is Sunderland's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Sunderland win29%▼ −3
- Draw25%=
- Chelsea win46%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.