Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Heart of Midlothian 2-5 Falkirk.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Heart of Midlothian, 24% draw, 24% Falkirk — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Heart of Midlothian at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. ReusG
- 23J. AltenaD
- 64M. Fagan-WalcottD
- 17S. FindlayD
- 5J. McCartD
- 78L. MendyM
- 31Y. DhandaM
- 29S. KerjotaM
- 10Cláudio BragaM
- 15J. McPakeM
- 11P. KaboreF
- 30R. FultonG
- 27A. BenjaminsenF
- 77A. Ba-SyF
- 39M. GilliesD
- 19S. GuendouzF
- 20L. KabashiF
- 33F. PollockM
- 9J. WilliamsF
- 21J. WilsonF
- 19S. BainG
- 4J. McMillanD
- 15L. NeilsonD
- 5L. HendersonD
- 17S. TanserD
- 16Finley Frank BarbrookM
- 8B. SpencerM
- 21D. MeļņiksM
- 23E. RossM
- 42Owen EamesM
- 24J. MurrellF
- 1N. HogarthG
- 2K. AdamsD
- 14F. YeatsM
- 99C. FodreyM
- 27C. McLeodM
- 28B. KrauhausM
- 10C. SibbaldM
- 7Ben ParkinsonF
- 9R. MacIverF
Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk
Heart of Midlothian
Premiership
- D2-2Rangers28 October 2026
- W2-0away to Motherwell25 October 2026
- L1-7away to Celtic18 October 2026
- W5-0St Mirren10 October 2026
Falkirk
Premiership
- W2-0Celtic1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Aberdeen28 October 2026
- W3-0Kilmarnock24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Hibernian17 October 2026
What these results say
- Heart of Midlothian scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Heart of Midlothian had three goals or more.
- Falkirk won every one of these 4 matches.
- Falkirk scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Falkirk kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Heart of Midlothian | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 22 | +4 | 20 |
| 3 | Falkirk | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk
- 15 September 2026Falkirk 2–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 13 May 2026Heart of Midlothian 3–0 FalkirkPremiership
- 21 February 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–0 FalkirkPremiership
- 17 January 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–1 FalkirkFA Cup
- 13 December 2025Falkirk 0–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 27 September 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–0 FalkirkPremiership
Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and Falkirk
Heart of Midlothian
GoalsAssists
- Cláudio Braga62
- C. Miller51
- J. McPake36
Falkirk
GoalsAssists
- J. Murrell70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Falkirk won 5–2 at Heart of Midlothian. The model had leaned towards a win for Heart of Midlothian at 52% and given a win for Falkirk 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Finley Frank Barbrook 4' for Falkirk, Owen Eames 17' for Falkirk, Jacob Murrell 33' for Falkirk, Liam Henderson 45+2' for Falkirk, Jacob Murrell 47' for Falkirk, Severin Sabri Guendouz 50' for Heart of Midlothian, Claudio Rafael Soares Braga (penalty) 75' for Heart of Midlothian. On expected goals it finished 1.93–2.56.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Heart of Midlothian these chances to finish top of the regular season: 6.0% after a win, 4.5% after a draw, 2.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 2.2%.
For Falkirk the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 74.7% going in: 82.0% after a win, 76.2% after a draw, 72.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 82.0%, 7.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Heart of Midlothian v Falkirk has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 56% / 22% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 52% / 24% / 24%: the biggest move is Heart of Midlothian's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Heart of Midlothian win52%▼ −4
- Draw24%▲ +2
- Falkirk win24%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.