8 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Celtic vs Kilmarnock Premiership prediction & result

Celtic Park, Glasgow
Referee: John Beaton
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Celtic 1-0 Kilmarnock.

Before kick-off the model made it 79% Celtic, 13% draw, 8% Kilmarnock — fair odds of 1.27, 7.69 and 12.50.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Celtic at 79%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Celtic97%Draw3%Kilmarnock0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
Tom Lowery
•Mika Baur
15'
⚽Liam Scalesassist: Camilo Duran
26'
33'
Joe Hugill
40'
Cathal McCarthy
🔁Jotaout: Yang Hyun-Jun
45'
50'
Jamie Brandon
61'
Tyreece John-Jules
64'
🔁Tyreece John-Julesout: Djenairo Daniels
64'
🔁Jamie Brandonout: Michael-John Kamson-Kamara
70'
🔁Greg Kiltieout: Nicky Clescenco
🔁Kasper Hoghout: James Forrest
71'
•Yang Hyun-Jun
73'
⚽Benjamin Nygren (pen)
76'
Yang Hyun-Jun
82'
🔁Benjamin Nygrenout: Luke McCowan
82'
🔁Mika Baurout: Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
86'
🔁Kieran Tierneyout: Dane Murray
86'
89'
🔁Cathal McCarthyout: Erik Ring

Match stats — Celtic vs Kilmarnock

59%Possession41%
20Shots7
5On target3
8Corners3
2.29xG1.53

Goals against chances

Celtic1 from 2.29 xGless than the chances were worth
Kilmarnock0 from 1.53 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Celtic 4-2-3-1
  • 26S. JohnstoneG
  • 51Colby DonovanD
  • 20C. Carter-VickersD
  • 5L. ScalesD
  • 63K. TierneyD
  • 42C. McGregorM
  • 22M. BaurM
  • 11C. DuránM
  • 8B. NygrenM
  • 7JotaM
  • 9K. HøghF
Substitutes
  • 49J. ForrestM
  • 14L. McCowanM
  • 47D. MurrayD
  • 21A. Oxlade-ChamberlainM
  • 56A. RalstonD
  • 1V. SinisaloG
  • 17S. TounektiF
  • 13Yang Hyun-JunF
  • 19C. OsmandF
Coach: M. O'Neill
Kilmarnock 4-2-3-1
  • 58N. MantlG
  • 2J. BrandonD
  • 4C. McCarthyD
  • 14G. StangerD
  • 21M. Schjønning-LarsenD
  • 36A. TshibolaM
  • 18T. LoweryM
  • 9J. HugillM
  • 11G. KiltieM
  • 27I. OwenM
  • 10T. John-JulesF
Substitutes
  • 6R. DeasD
  • 3Michael-John Kamson-KamaraD
  • 7R. McKenzieM
  • 19J. MeierD
  • 49B. RiceM
  • 8E. RingM
  • 20N. CleșcencoF
  • 29D. DanielsF
  • 12C. FerrieG
Coach: N. McCann

Form going into Celtic vs Kilmarnock

Celtic

Premiership

  • L0-2away to Falkirk1 November 2026
  • D2-2Dundee United28 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Hibernian25 October 2026
  • W7-1Heart of Midlothian18 October 2026

Kilmarnock

Premiership

  • D2-2St Johnstone31 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Dundee28 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Falkirk24 October 2026
  • W3-2Motherwell17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Celtic conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Celtic scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Celtic had three goals or more.
  • Kilmarnock conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Kilmarnock had three goals or more.
  • Kilmarnock failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Celtic1310122810+1831
12Kilmarnock132381329-169

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Celtic vs Kilmarnock

  • 9 August 2026Kilmarnock 1–5 CelticPremiership
  • 15 February 2026Kilmarnock 2–3 CelticPremiership
  • 9 November 2025Celtic 4–0 KilmarnockPremiership
  • 14 September 2025Kilmarnock 1–2 CelticPremiership
  • 12 April 2025Celtic 5–1 KilmarnockPremiership
  • 18 January 2025Celtic 2–1 KilmarnockFA Cup

Leading scorers: Celtic and Kilmarnock

Celtic

GoalsAssists

  • C. Durán76
  • B. Nygren64
  • K. Høgh33

Kilmarnock

GoalsAssists

  • G. Kiltie30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Celtic beat Kilmarnock 1–0. The model had made a win for Celtic its most likely outcome, at 79%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goal: Liam Scales 26' for Celtic. On expected goals it finished 2.29–1.53.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Celtic a 55.9% chance to finish top of the regular season: 57.5% after a win, 48.8% after a draw, 40.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 57.5%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.

For Kilmarnock the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 80.4% going in: 66.0% after a win, 77.3% after a draw, 81.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 81.8%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Celtic v Kilmarnock has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 81% / 12% / 7% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 79% / 13% / 8%: the biggest move is Celtic's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Celtic win79%▼ −2
  2. Draw13%▲ +1
  3. Kilmarnock win8%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.