CSKA Moscow vs Rubin Premier League prediction & result
Final score: CSKA Moscow 1-1 Rubin.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% CSKA Moscow, 29% draw, 29% Rubin — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Moscow at 42% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — CSKA Moscow vs Rubin
Line-ups
- 49V. ToropG
- 4João VictorD
- 79M. ZeaD
- 23Dzhamalutdin AbdulkadyrovD
- 21M. AzziM
- 10I. OblyakovM
- 31M. KislyakM
- 2Matheus ReisM
- 3D. KrugovoyM
- 17K. GlebovM
- 11T. MusaevF
- 99Nikolay BarovskiyG
- 39M. BoriskoG
- 62I. FirovF
- 37HenriqueM
- 18D. KozlovM
- 90M. LukinD
- 7Matheus AlvesM
- 19I. OleynikovM
- 20Matija PopovicM
- 38E. StaverG
- 98N. LobovD
- 2E. TeslenkoD
- 5I. VujačićD
- 13J. UrozovD
- 51I. RozhkovD
- 12A. ArroyoM
- 22V. HodžaM
- 6U. IwuM
- 77A. JukićM
- 43J. SiweF
- 71I. SamoshnikovD
- 86N. KoretsG
- 14I. SaavedraM
- 4K. NizhegorodovD
- 25A. NigmatullinG
- 59D. N. MotorinF
- 3D. MaldonadoD
- 44D. KuznetsovM
- 8B. JočićM
Form going into CSKA Moscow vs Rubin
CSKA Moscow
- W2-1away to Zenit5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Akron28 August 2026
- W3-2Lokomotiv22 August 2026
- W1-0Fakel15 August 2026
Rubin
- D1-1Akhmat7 September 2026
- W3-1Dinamo Makhachkala30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Baltika24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 16 |
| 6 | Rubin | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CSKA Moscow vs Rubin
- 12 September 2026CSKA Moscow 1–1 RubinPremier League
- 25 April 2026Rubin 0–0 CSKA MoscowPremier League
- 9 August 2025CSKA Moscow 5–1 RubinPremier League
- 30 November 2024CSKA Moscow 2–2 RubinPremier League
- 26 November 2024CSKA Moscow 3–0 RubinCup
- 6 November 2024Rubin 0–0 CSKA MoscowCup
Leading scorers: CSKA Moscow and Rubin
CSKA Moscow
- I. Oblyakov4 goals
- L. Gondou2 goals1 assists
Rubin
- J. Siwe3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.