12 September 2026, 13:15 UTC

Zenit vs Lokomotiv Premier League prediction & result

Gazprom Arena, Saint Petersburg
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Zenit 2-1 Lokomotiv.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Zenit, 29% draw, 27% Lokomotiv — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Zenit at 44% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zenit97%Draw3%Lokomotiv0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
⚽Aleksandr Rudenkoassist: Sergey Babkin
⚽Kevin Andrade
47'
🔁Kevin Andradeout: Vyacheslav Karavaev
65'
🔁Artem Karpukasout: Pedro Henrique Silva dos Santos
65'
⚽Luiz Henriqueassist: Pedro Henrique Silva dos Santos
70'
72'
🔁Zelimkhan Bakaevout: Sergey Pinyaev
76'
Evgeniy Morozov
Nuraly Alip
76'
🔁Jhon Jhonout: Daniil Kondakov
80'
🔁Maksim Glushenkovout: Douglas Santos
80'
80'
🔁Lucas Fassonout: Vadim Rakov
83'
🔁Nikolay Titkovout: Andrey Mostovoy
🔁Aleksandr Sobolevout: Felipe Augusto
89'
90+3'
Andrey Mostovoy

Match stats — Zenit vs Lokomotiv

61%Possession39%
18Shots14
4On target4
5Corners4

Line-ups

Zenit 4-2-3-1
  • 16D. AdamovG
  • 25K. AndradeD
  • 78I. DiveevD
  • 28N. AlipD
  • 66R. VegaD
  • 5W. BarriosM
  • 93A. KarpukasM
  • 11Luiz HenriqueM
  • 10M. GlushenkovM
  • 14Jhon JhonM
  • 7A. SobolevF
Substitutes
  • 57B. MoskvichevG
  • 33NinoD
  • 38Amir MusaevM
  • 71D. OdoevskiyG
  • 20Pedro HenriqueF
  • 82S. VolkovD
  • 9Felipe AugustoF
  • 3Douglas SantosD
  • 61D. KondakovM
Coach: S. Semak
Lokomotiv 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. MitryushkinG
  • 24M. NenakhovD
  • 85E. MorozovD
  • 45A. SiljanovD
  • 3Lucas FassonD
  • 6S. BabkinM
  • 75I. EremeevM
  • 7Z. BakaevM
  • 18N. TitkovM
  • 19A. RudenkoM
  • 27N. KomlichenkoF
Substitutes
  • 74D. ChevardinD
  • 47D. GodyaevM
  • 63V. GolubevF
  • 8A. KovalenkoM
  • 22I. LantratovG
  • 77A. MostovoyM
  • 9S. PinyaevM
  • 59E. PogostnovD
  • 11V. RakovF
Coach: M. Galaktionov

Form going into Zenit vs Lokomotiv

Zenit

  • L1-2CSKA Moscow5 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Fakel29 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Spartak Moscow23 August 2026

Lokomotiv

  • W1-0away to Baltika6 September 2026
  • L0-1Dynamo29 August 2026
  • L2-3away to CSKA Moscow22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Zenit9603199+1018
13Lokomotiv9144811-37

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zenit vs Lokomotiv

  • 12 September 2026Zenit 2–1 LokomotivPremier League
  • 22 April 2026Lokomotiv 0–0 ZenitPremier League
  • 1 November 2025Zenit 2–0 LokomotivPremier League
  • 5 April 2025Lokomotiv 1–1 ZenitPremier League
  • 27 October 2024Zenit 1–1 LokomotivPremier League
  • 3 December 2023Lokomotiv Moscow 3–1 Zenit Saint PetersburgPremier League

Leading scorers: Zenit and Lokomotiv

Zenit

  • A. Sobolev6 goals1 assists
  • M. Glushenkov5 goals2 assists

Lokomotiv

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.