CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa First League prediction & result
Final score: CSKA Sofia 5-0 Botev Vratsa.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% CSKA Sofia, 30% draw, 34% Botev Vratsa — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Sofia at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 21Fedor LapoukhovG
- 11Mohamed Amine BrahimiM
- 5Jean-Philippe GbaminD
- 14Teodor IvanovD
- 19Andrey YordanovD
- 6Bruno JordãoM
- 94Cătălin ItuM
- 99James Eto'oM
- 94Isaac SoletM
- 30Petko PanayotovM
- 10Joël ZwartsF
- 32Facundo RodríguezD
- 38Léo PereiraM
- 2PastorD
- 34Vasil KaymakanovM
- 9Leandro GodoyF
- 25Dimitar EvtimovG
- 15Aleks TunchevD
- 80Georgi ChorbadzhiyskiM
- 7Max EbongM
- 98Lyubomir VasilevG
- 8Antoan StoyanovM
- 88Lazar BoyanovD
- 55Đorđe JovičićD
- 97Vladislav NaydenovM
- 24Martin SmolenskiM
- 12Iliya YurukovM
- 81Kassim HadjiM
- 10José GallegosM
- 9Daniel GenovM
- 99Preslav BorukovF
- 48Martin DimitrovD
- 79Martin PetkovF
- 17Samuil MechevF
- 23Luboslav StoyanovG
- 2Miroslav TsonevM
Form going into CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
CSKA Sofia
- L1-3Maccabi Tel Aviv13 August 2026
- W3-0away to Septemvri Sofia9 August 2026
- W3-0away to Maccabi Tel Aviv6 August 2026
- W2-1Dunav Ruse2 August 2026
- D0-0Qarabag30 July 2026
Botev Vratsa
- L0-3Slavia Sofia10 August 2026
- L1-2away to Ludogorets2 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA 194825 July 2026
- D1-1Cherno More Varna19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 23 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
- 16 August 2026CSKA Sofia 5–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 4 March 2026CSKA Sofia 1–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 22 September 2025Botev Vratsa 1–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 5 April 2025Botev Vratsa 1–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 24 October 2024CSKA Sofia 2–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 18 February 2024CSKA Sofia 3–0 Botev VratsaFirst League