Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Spartak Varna 0-1 Septemvri Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 90% Spartak Varna, 7% draw, 3% Septemvri Sofia — fair odds of 1.11, 14.29 and 33.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spartak Varna at 90% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 23Plamen IlievG
- 76David Valverde JuanM
- 45Joey TshitokuD
- 44Angel GranchovD
- 4Boris IvanovD
- 17Tsvetoslav MarinovM
- 11Boubacar HanneF
- 6Ricardo SousaM
- 82Tomás SilvaM
- 10Jota LopesM
- 70Ahmed AhmedovF
- 77Anton IvanovF
- 19Sámuel MajorM
- 7BuáM
- 9Tsvetelin ChunchukovF
- 99Georgi TrifonovF
- 1Pedro VictorG
- 3Mateo Jurić-PetrašiloD
- 14Daniel PavlovD
- 80Ángel Gomes ArevaloF
- 12Vladimir IvanovG
- 13Kubrat OnashchiD
- 4Martin HristovD
- 26Valentine OzornwaforD
- 3Sebas WadeD
- 5Yoan BaurenskiM
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 11Aleksandar DzhamovF
- 8Bozhidar PenchevD
- 29Frantzety HerardF
- 27André LiberalF
- 28Stoyan StoichkovM
- 33Galin IvanovM
- 7Edney RibeiroF
- 1Alexander RadkovG
- 15Petar GospodinovD
- 20Bozhidar TomovskiD
- 24Zahari AtanasovM
- 17Nicolas FontaineM
Form going into Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
Spartak Varna
- L2-3away to Botev Plovdiv10 August 2026
- W1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv3 August 2026
- W3-0away to Cherno More Varna26 July 2026
- D2-2CSKA 194817 July 2026
Septemvri Sofia
- L0-3CSKA Sofia9 August 2026
- L0-3away to Levski Sofia1 August 2026
- L1-2away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv26 July 2026
- D1-1Arda Kardzhali18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 10 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
- 17 August 2026Spartak Varna 0–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 14 May 2026Septemvri Sofia 1–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 16 April 2026Septemvri Sofia 0–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 7 November 2025Spartak Varna 1–4 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 16 March 2025Spartak Varna 4–2 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 30 September 2024Septemvri Sofia 0–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League