ADO Den Haag vs Groningen Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: ADO Den Haag 1-4 Groningen.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% ADO Den Haag, 24% draw, 45% Groningen — fair odds of 3.23, 4.17 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Groningen at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — ADO Den Haag vs Groningen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Kilian NikièmaG
- 15Milan HokkeD
- 3Pascal MulderD
- 4Matteo WaemD
- 18Sekou SyllaD
- 7Daryl van MieghemM
- 8Jan ŽambůrekM
- 25Juho KiloM
- 10Illaijh de RuijterM
- 9Jesse BalF
- 46Yannick EduardoF
- 2Othniël RaterinkD
- 16Finn de BruinM
- 19Luka ReischlF
- 11Evan RottierF
- 22Lasse WilhelmD
- 23Niclas ThiedeG
- 12Sem EekhoutG
- 35Sanyika BergtopD
- 14Mylian JimenezM
- 1Etienne VaessenG
- 14Jorg SchreudersD
- 3Thijmen BlokzijlD
- 15Elvis Van der LaanD
- 2Wouter PrinsD
- 8Tika de JongeM
- 18Tygo LandM
- 17David van der WerffM
- 26Thom van BergenM
- 24Pelle ClementM
- 9Brynjólfur Darri WillumssonF
- 4Márk CsingerD
- 20Nils EggensF
- 12Nikolas BrandisD
- 7Travis HernesM
- 11Jacob OndrejkaF
- 13Lovro ŠtubljarG
- 31Rijk JanseG
- 42Jesper MosselaarD
- 16Alvin NordinM
Form going into ADO Den Haag vs Groningen
ADO Den Haag
- L0-2away to AZ Alkmaar8 August 2026
Groningen
- W2-1Utrecht9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | ADO Den Haag | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 1 |
| 9 | Groningen | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: ADO Den Haag vs Groningen
- 16 August 2026ADO Den Haag 1–4 GroningenEredivisie
- 29 March 2024ADO Den Haag 0–2 GroningenEerste Divisie
- 15 September 2023Groningen 0–1 ADO Den HaagEerste Divisie
- 26 January 2021Groningen 3–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 20 September 2020ADO Den Haag 0–1 GroningenEredivisie
Leading scorers: ADO Den Haag and Groningen
ADO Den Haag
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Groningen
- B. Willumsson4 goals
- T. van Bergen3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.