Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Arda Kardzhali 3-1 Lokomotiv Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Arda Kardzhali, 21% draw, 28% Lokomotiv Sofia — fair odds of 1.96, 4.76 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arda Kardzhali at 51% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1Anatoli GospodinovG
- 21Vyacheslav VelevD
- 44Adama Ardile TraoréD
- 5Viktor LyubenovD
- 35Dimitar VelkovskiD
- 80Lachezar KotevM
- 8Dominik YankovM
- 10Svetoslav KovachevM
- 91Stanislav IvanovM
- 99Birsent KaragarenM
- 16Preslav BachevF
- 4Idowu David AkintolaM
- 11Atanas KabovM
- 9Georgi NikolovF
- 18Simeon VasilevD
- 6Viktor PopovD
- 22Yanko GeorgievG
- 24Martin PaskalevD
- 26Burak AkandzhaM
- 99Martin VelichkovG
- 22Reyan DaskalovD
- 3Kaloyan KostovD
- 91Ryan BidoungaD
- 14Angel LyaskovD
- 26Krasimir MiloshevM
- 31Krasimir StanoevM
- 17Mark Emilio PapazovM
- 20Dimitar KostadinovM
- 7Spas DelevM
- 77Caue Caruzo AlvesF
- 6EirôD
- 11Adil TaouiM
- 16Mohamed MedfaiM
- 44Bozhidar KatsarovD
- 71Nikolas PenevM
- 24Aleksandar LyubenovG
- 42Nikola NeychevD
- 19Mitko MitkovD
- 5Erol DostM
Form going into Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
- W2-0away to Dunav Ruse8 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA 194831 July 2026
- W1-0Slavia Sofia24 July 2026
- D1-1away to Septemvri Sofia18 July 2026
Lokomotiv Sofia
- L1-3CSKA 19488 August 2026
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia31 July 2026
- L1-2Levski Sofia25 July 2026
- D1-1away to Botev Plovdiv20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia
- 17 August 2026Arda Kardzhali 3–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 28 November 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 0–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 27 July 2025Arda Kardzhali 1–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 13 April 2025Arda Kardzhali 5–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 2 November 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 0–2 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 9 December 2023Lokomotiv Sofia 0–1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League