Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse First League prediction & result
Final score: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 Dunav Ruse.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 24% draw, 38% Dunav Ruse — fair odds of 2.63, 4.17 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 38% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1Bojan MilosavljevićG
- 2Adrián CovaD
- 4Andrei ChindrişD
- 13Lucas RyanD
- 5Todor PavlovD
- 22Ivaylo IvanovM
- 12Efe AliM
- 3Dalil AliD
- 11Ryan Yang LeijtenM
- 7Sevi IdrizM
- 29Christ LongvilleF
- 99Julien LamyM
- 9Axel VelevF
- 6Miha TrdanM
- 40Petar ZovkoG
- 44Milan PetrovicD
- 16Denis KirashkiD
- 30Aleksandar AleksandrovM
- 10Yoan DzhelepovF
- 33Georgi KitanovG
- 2Mario Ivanov DilchovskiD
- 5Kyriakos AntoniouM
- 39Andre AlvesD
- 22Stojan PredevD
- 44Vladan VidakovićM
- 24Stefan GavrilovM
- 14Radoslav ApostolovM
- 10Kristiyan BoychevM
- 11Denislav MinchevF
- 9Alexander Valino NavasalF
- 51Ilker BudinovD
- 18Ibrahim KeitaF
- 6Stanislav YovkovD
- 69Plamen PepelyashevG
- 19Stefan StefanovM
- 77Aleksandar SimeonovF
Form going into Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- L0-2away to Levski Sofia7 August 2026
- L0-1away to Spartak Varna3 August 2026
- W2-1Septemvri Sofia26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Ludogorets18 July 2026
Dunav Ruse
- L0-2Arda Kardzhali8 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA Sofia2 August 2026
- L0-2Ludogorets27 July 2026
- L1-2away to Levski Sofia17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse
- 16 August 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–2 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 28 October 2025Dunav Ruse 1–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivCup
- 9 December 2019Dunav Ruse 0–3 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 19 August 2019Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3–1 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 19 April 2019Dunav Ruse 2–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 29 March 2019Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Dunav RuseFirst League