27 October 2026, 23:00 UTC

Cucuta vs Águilas Doradas Primera A prediction & result

Estadio General Santander, Cucuta
Referee: Carlos Betancur, Colombia
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Cucuta 0-2 Águilas Doradas.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Cucuta, 28% draw, 30% Águilas Doradas — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cucuta at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cucuta0%Draw1%Águilas Doradas99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

33'
⚽A. Ricaurte
45'
⚽A. Mosqueraassist: A. Ricaurte
🔁L. Riosout: J. Agudelo
56'
🔁G. Torresout: M. B. Carabali Lopez
65'
🔁D. Perezout: C. Cordoba
65'
65'
🔁J. Menaout: E. Arizalas
69'
D. Lozano
76'
🔁M. Ramirezout: A. Carreno
🔁S. Tamaraout: D. Calcaterra
79'
🔁J. Quinonesout: J. E. Manyoma Cordoba
79'
J. Agudelo
81'
V. Mejia
82'
86'
🔁A. Vasquezout: J. E. Avalo Trejos
86'
🔁I. Rojasout: J. Roa
J. Peralta
90'
90+2'
J. Garcia

Match stats — Cucuta vs Águilas Doradas

52%Possession48%
16Shots14
5On target7
12Corners2
1.01xG1.65

Goals against chances

Cucuta0 from 1.01 xGless than the chances were worth
Águilas Doradas2 from 1.65 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cucuta 4-1-4-1
  • 12Federico AbadíaG
  • 33Sebastián TamaraD
  • 2Hernán LópesD
  • 4Jhon QuiñónesD
  • 30Brayan MontañoD
  • 5Victor MejiaM
  • 11Gustavo TorresM
  • 29Lucas RíosM
  • 77Carlos RenteríaM
  • 20Dayan PérezM
  • 9Jaime PeraltaF
Substitutes
  • 32Jhonatan AgudeloF
  • 21Marlon CarabaliF
  • 18Cristian CórdobaF
  • 3Diego CalcaterraD
  • 7Jader ManyomaM
  • 1Juan David RamírezG
  • 27Mauricio DuarteD
  • 8Juan CeballosM
  • 15Santiago VásquezM
Águilas Doradas 4-2-3-1
  • 1Jorge SotoG
  • 26Dylan LozanoD
  • 4Andrés MosqueraD
  • 2John GarcíaD
  • 3John OntanedaD
  • 19Frank LozanoM
  • 6Iván RojasM
  • 16Matías RamírezM
  • 8Andrés RicaurteM
  • 32Javier MenaM
  • 9Anthony VásquezF
Substitutes
  • 7Eduar ArízalasF
  • 18Andrés CarreñoF
  • 25Juan Camilo RoaM
  • 24Juan ÁvaloM
  • 12Juan HurtadoG
  • 28Sebastián RodríguezD
  • 30Nicolás LaraD

Form going into Cucuta vs Águilas Doradas

Cucuta

Primera A

  • L1-3away to America de Cali24 October 2026

Águilas Doradas

Primera A

  • L0-1away to Junior24 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Cucuta198382126-527
11Águilas Doradas196762222025

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cucuta vs Águilas Doradas

  • 7 February 2026Águilas Doradas 3–2 CucutaPrimera A
  • 7 November 2020Águilas Doradas 2–1 CucutaPrimera A
  • 16 July 2019Águilas Doradas 1–3 CucutaPrimera A
  • 26 January 2019Cucuta 3–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A

Leading scorers: Cucuta and Águilas Doradas

Cucuta

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Águilas Doradas

GoalsAssists

  • Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto110

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Águilas Doradas won 2–0 at Cucuta. The model had leaned towards a win for Cucuta at 42% and given a win for Águilas Doradas 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Ricaurte 33' for Águilas Doradas, A. Mosquera 45' for Águilas Doradas. On expected goals it finished 1.01–1.65.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cucuta a 44.9% chance to finish in the top eight: 66.7% after a win, 36.2% after a draw, 17.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.1%, 27.8 points lower than before the match.

For Águilas Doradas the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 22.6% going in: 45.6% after a win, 19.3% after a draw, 8.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.6%, 23 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.